BASIC INDUSTRIES: Holcim (HOLNSW Baa1/BBB+/BBB[P]): 4Q24 Results Out

Germany and Italy are both due to return to the market to hold auctions this week. Austria has held a syndication while the EU, the Netherlands, Germany and Italy have held auctions already this week. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E37.5bln, down from E57.5bln last week.

• Today, Germany will return to the market to sell E4.5bln of the 10-year 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z049).
• Tomorrow, Italy will hold an auction to sell 5/10-year BTPs and a CCTeu. On offer will be E2.50-2.75bln of the on-the-run 5-year 3.00% Oct-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005611055) alongside two off-the-run BTPs in the 10-year area: E1.5-2.0bln of the 3.85% Feb-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005607970) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 3.35% Mar-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005358806). E2.25-2.75bln of the Apr-33 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005620460).

For more details on issuance this week and next week see the full document here: EZ250129.pdf

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12  
• RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 156.75 High Jan 23       
• PRICE: 155.28 @ 06:49 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 153.72/34 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 18  
• SUP 2: 152.55 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
• SUP 3: 151.81 Low Dec 12   
• SUP 4: 151.06 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg   

USDJPY is trading closer to its recent lows. The primary trend condition  remains bullish, however, Monday’s move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of weakness would open 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.

• RES 4: 5335.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 5327.90 1.764 proj of the Dec 20 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing      
• RES 2: 5298.50 1.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 5276.00 High Jan 24          
• PRICE: 5257.00 @ 06:28 GMT Jan 28  
• SUP 1: 5144.00 Low Jan 27           
• SUP 2: 5108.69 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 5021.12 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support  

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the move lower from last Friday’s high, appears to have been a correction. A deeper retracement would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up highlighting a dominant uptrend. The first important support to watch is 5108.69, the 20-day EMA. A resumption of the uptrend would open 5298.50, a Fibonacci projection.