PHILIPPINES: House Of Representatives Moves To Impeach Vice President Duterte
The Philippines' House of Representatives impeached Vice President Sara Duterte, referring her case to the Senate for trial, after 215 MPs endorsed the complaint. Duterte is expected to stay in office until the Senate delivers its verdict.
- The latest petition against Duterte was already the fourth one, as three earlier complaints have been stuck in the Speaker's office for around two months. The fourth complaint was filed by Senior Deputy Majority Leader Sandro Marcos, privately the son of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
- Under normal circumstances, only one-third of all House members (102) need to support an impeachment motion to advance it to the Senate. However, support from two-thirds of sitting MPs expedites the process, automatically triggering a trial.
- The Senate can now unseat Duterte if two-thirds (16 out of 24) of its members vote in favour. However, a failure to convict her would make her immune to repeated impeachment attempts for a year.
- Duterte has been accused of a misuse of public funds and other high crimes but has denied all allegations, claiming that they represent a political attack.
- Repeated attempts to oust Duterte have been seen as part of a wider clash between two of the Philippines' most powerful political clans, which decided to share a ticket in the 2022 presidential election.
- The motion was passed just ahead of the February 11 start of official campaigning ahead of the May general elections, a key test of public support for President Marcos.
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MNI: SPAIN DEC SRVCS PMI 57.3 (FCAST 54.1); NOV 53.1
- MNI: SPAIN DEC SRVCS PMI 57.3 (FCAST 54.1); NOV 53.1
STIR: A Little Over 100bp Of ECB Cuts Priced For '25
Weakness in the long end has triggered hawkish repricing in EUR STIRs during early ’25, leaving ~103bp of easing priced through Dec vs. ~105bp late Friday and 115-120bp seen ahead of the Christmas break.
- Euribor futures 2.0 to 4.0 lower.
- ERZ5 ~10 ticks off its early November low.
- Services PMI data (final for Germany, France & the Eurozone) is due today, as is the flash German CPI data.
- Preliminary Eurozone CPI data is due tomorrow. The BBG survey median looks for +2.4% Y/Y for the headline CPI release vs. +2.2% in Nov.
- Our full preview of that release can be found here.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Jan-25 | 2.654 | -26.5 |
Mar-25 | 2.375 | -54.4 |
Apr-25 | 2.178 | -74.1 |
Jun-25 | 2.046 | -87.3 |
Jul-25 | 1.999 | -92.0 |
Sep-25 | 1.936 | -98.3 |
Oct-25 | 1.905 | -101.4 |
Dec-25 | 1.888 | -103.1 |
SILVER TECHS: Still Looking For Weakness
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.529 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $29.644 @ 08:11 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
