NATGAS: HSBC Lowers Its TTF Price Forecast

Gilts away from session lows during the early rounds of comments from Chancellor Reeves. The lack of long-term fiscal deterioration outlined in the Budget seems to provide some relief. Futures around the middle of their session range. Curve holds steeper.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves: "In the autumn, I set out new fiscal rules that would guide this government. These fiscal rules are non-negotiable. They are the embodiment of this government’s unwavering commitment to bring stability to our economy." Reeves looking to lay the groundwork for today's expected cuts by repeatedly bringing up actions of the previous Conservative gov't, claiming "people have seen what happens when a government borrows beyond its means. The mini-budget delivered by the [Conservatives] led to higher bills higher rents and higher mortgages."

• Reeves: "After the last government doubled the national debt, debt interest now stands at £105.2bn this financial year, more than we allocate on Defence, the Home Office and Justice combined. So the responsible choice is to reduce our levels of debt and borrowing in the years ahead..."

Reeves claims there will be no new taxes, but outlines plans to cut tax avoidance. Reeves: "it cannot be right that others are still evading what they rightly owe. [...] continuing our investment in cutting-edge technology investing in HMRC’s capacity to crack down on tax avoidance and setting out plans to increase the number of tax fraudsters charged each year by 20%. These changes raise a further £1bn taking total revenue raised from reducing tax evasion under this government to £7.5bn figures verified by the Office for Budget Responsibility."

Reeves: Headroom will be GBP15.1bln in the final year of the forecast