EU TECHNOLOGY: IBM Q4 Results
IBM A3[N]/A-/A-
Mild EBITDA beat with strong FCF and ahead-of-consensus guidance make for positive results. EPS beat pushed equity +9% post-market.
- Q4 cFX revs +2% (vs. +1.5% cons) w/ SW +11% (in line) but consulting -1% (vs. -0.3% cons) and infra -6% (vs. -9.7% cons).
- Q4 CFO USD 4.3bn from USD 4.2bn YoY. FCF USD 6.2bn from USD 6.1bn YoY (+9.5% vs. cons).
- Q4 EBITDA USD 5.6bn from USD 5.5bn YoY (+1.4% vs. cons).
- Debt of USD 55bn from USD 56.6bn at FY23 with cash of USD 14.8bn from USD 13.5bn
- EBITDA leverage 0.3x lower to 2.5x (total debt less cash), 1.7x (non-financing less cash). Our calc.
- FY25 cFX revs seen at least +5% (vs. +4.7% cons) with FCF of USD 13.5bn (vs. USD 13.2 cons).
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EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C December 30, 2024
Greece is due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E0.5bln in first round operations, in-line with last week.
- Today, Greece will sell E500mln of the new 13-week Apr 4, 2025 GTB.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5040.00 High Dec 9 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 5027.00 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 5002.00 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 4939.00 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 4881.00 @ Close Dec 30
- SUP 1: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 4800.87 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4775.00 Low Nov 29
- SUP 4: 4727.00 Low Nov 21 and a key support
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective phase. Despite the latest bounce, a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Key short-term support has been defined at 4829.00, the Dec 20 low. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle and open 4800.87, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 4939.00, the Dec 19 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 3: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8356 High Nov 27
- RES 1: 0.8316/29 50-day EMA / High Dec 27
- PRICE: 0.8290 @ 06:35 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing
EURGBP resistance at 0.8317, the 50-day EMA, has recently been pierced - but has so far failed to trigger a sharper move higher. A clear breach of the EMA would undermine the bear theme and highlight a stronger reversal. A resumption of the primary downtrend would pave the way for a move towards major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.
