EU REAL ESTATE: ICADE (ICADFP: BBB): FY24
A difficult year but guidance has some positives
- Guidance is fairly positive with NCCF €3.40-€3.60 for 2025 ahead of €3.27 estimates (BBG)
- Net Debt/EBITDA 10.0x increased by 300bps
- LTV 36.5% also increased by 300bps
- Portfolio value fell by -7.1% like-for-like with "well-positioned offices" falling -6.7% on the year. This after a -17.9% fall in 2023.
- Gross Rental income +2.5% lfl in Property Investment Division
- Group NCCF -13.9% to €301.8m
- NCCF from strategic ops €223.1m -4.1%
- Healthcare disposals are still slow which caused the S&P downgrade in November
- Property Development - Residential - saw +1% uptick in volume of orders but value still down c.-3% which is described a "positive signs"
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GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: $2724.8 - High Jan 16
- PRICE: $2706.3 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: $2651.2 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
- SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
The recent climb in Gold appears corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal continues to hold on to its latest gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. The stronger recovery exposes $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2649.0, the 50-day EMA.
BUNDS: US Trump's inauguration Day
- A tight 17 ticks range for Bund Overnight, the US are out for MLK day and Trump's inauguration.
- While the contract is showing slightly in the red, it remains closer to Friday's high, where the initial resistance will be seen.
- The 131.97 high on Friday was also close to the 2.50% level in Yield terms.
- Initial small support comes at 131.50, Friday's low.
- The German PPI came below expectation on the Cash open, but was only worth a 8 ticks gain for the Bund, and there's no Data left for today's session.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Vujcic, Holzmann, Trump's Inauguration should start before noon Local time.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Testing Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 119.33/35 20-day EMA / High Jan 17
- PRICE: 119.07 @ Close Jan 17
- SUP 1: 117.16 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and last week’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. However, from a short-term perspective, the latest rally highlights a corrective phase. Resistance to watch is 119.33, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.
