MNI EXCLUSIVE: ICMA MD Andy Hill speaks about the dollar

The SNB has published their "quarterly bulletin" as well as their quarterly "business cycle signals". Key highlights:

• "For the next two quarters, companies expect purchase and sales prices to remain stable or rise slightly (chart 8). On the one hand, reductions in the price of electricity and gas are curbing costs. On the other hand, the rising prices of certain raw materials and inputs are leading to slight upward pressure on purchase prices in manufacturing and construction" - suggests risks of material deflation in Switzerland are limited for the moment "
• The companies surveyed report solid turnover growth overall in the first quarter. Growth momentum in the services sector and construction remains robust. Turnover in manufacturing also saw tangible growth, having barely increased in previous quarters" - the KOF indicator points towards robust growth ahead
• "Companies are no longer as concerned as in previous years about the shortage of specialist staff and recruitment difficulties. Staffing levels are approximately in line with companies’ needs" - mirroring the softening labour market in Switzerland
• "The growth outlook is brightening somewhat but is still subject to considerable uncertainty. In particular, as long as the precise details of the new US administration’s trade policy are not known, the effects are difficult for companies to assess" - as expected given the current global backdrop

Link to the quarterly bulletin (also contains business cycle signals
publication on the back): https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/quarterly-bulletin/2025/quartbul_2025_1_komplett

In the wake of the Spring Statement TD Securities “continue to see value in 10s30s flatteners and paid 5s10s30s fly. Also, we hold long bias for long-end ASW.”

• US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -3.34M TO 433.6M MAR 21 WK
• US EIA: DISTILLATE STOCKS -0.42M TO 114.4M IN MAR 21 WK
• US EIA: GASOLINE STOCKS -1.45M TO 239.1M IN MAR 21 WK
• US EIA: CUSHING STOCKS -0.76M TO 22.7M BARRELS IN MAR 21 WK
• US EIA: SPR +0.29M TO 396.1M BARRELS IN MAR 21 WK
• US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE +0.1% TO 87.0% IN MAR 21 WK