GERMANY: IFO Sees 0.3pp GDP Growth Hit In 2025 From US Tariffs
Apr-03 12:24
IFO estimates yesterday's US reciprocal tariff announcements could reduce German 2025 real GDP growt...
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BONDS: Core Bonds recover from the lows
Mar-04 12:24
- Continued two way flows in Core Govies, and some notable buying as futures recover higher, TYM5 is bought in over 12k, Bund and Bobl in over 6k respectivelly.
- The Initial support noted in Bund at 132.13 did held, printed a 132.13 low.
- Bobl spread, OEH5/M5 is sold at -103 in ~29k.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Remain Above Support
Mar-04 12:22
- In the FI space, Bund futures on Monday pulled back from their recent highs and the contract remains below last week’s peak. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose the next key support at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level would be viewed as an important short-term technical break. Two important resistance points remain intact for now; 133.46, the Feb 28 high, and 133.71, the Feb 5 high.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact - for now. The contract has recently traded higher and this highlighted scope for a test of resistance at 93.39, the Feb 13 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 93.83, the high on Feb 6 and a bull trigger. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 91.79, Feb 20 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a bear threat. First support lies at 92.57, the Mar 3 low.
FED FUNDS FUTURES: BLOCK: May'25 FF Sale
Mar-04 12:17
- -10,000 FFK5 95.775, sell through 95.78 post time bid at 0708:57ET. The May contract trades 95.785 last (+0.030)
