BRAZIL: Import Tariffs On Food Products Scrapped, Q4 GDP, Feb Trade Due

Mar-07 11:21
  • VP Alckmin has said that the government will eliminate tariffs on a series of basic food products, in an effort to reduce food price pressures that have been weighing on President Lula’s popularity. The measures should come into effect in the next few days. Alckmin also said that he will have more meetings with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick in the coming days, after a virtual meeting yesterday to discuss the US tariff policy. Alckmin believes the countries will reach a good understanding on bilateral trade.
  • On the data front, Q4 GDP is expected to rise by a further 0.4% q/q, following a 0.9% gain in Q3 (1200GMT/0700ET). This would leave annual GDP growth unchanged at 4.0% y/y in Q4, taking full-year growth to 3.5%. Later today, the trade surplus is seen edging down to $1.9bn in February, from $2.16bn (1800GMT/1300ET). February vehicle sales data from Fenabrave will also cross later.
    • 4Q GDP QoQ, est. 0.4%, prior 0.9%
    • 4Q GDP YoY, est. 4.0%, prior 4.0%
    • Feb. Trade Balance Monthly, est. $1.9b, prior $2.16b
  • Meanwhile, Finance Minister Haddad will give an interview to local podcast Flow at 2200GMT(1700ET) today. Earlier, BCB economic policy director Guillen will attend the Monetary Transmission and Labour Market conference, organised by Bank of Portugal at 1615GMT(1115ET).

Historical bullets

STIR: Mix Of Long Setting & Short Cover In Most SOFR Futures On Tuesday

Feb-05 11:13

OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover in most SOFR futures on Tuesday.

  • Net OI swings were relatively limited, once again pointing to a lack of any real conviction, with traders wary of tariff headlines and related risk of two-way price swings.

 

04-Feb-25

03-Feb-25

Daily OI Change

 

Daily OI Change In Packs

SFRZ4

1,073,967

1,082,060

-8,093

Whites

-3,188

SFRH5

1,227,372

1,215,014

+12,358

Reds

-13,237

SFRM5

1,081,899

1,093,284

-11,385

Greens

+17,150

SFRU5

779,484

775,552

+3,932

Blues

+4,574

SFRZ5

944,129

942,862

+1,267

 

 

SFRH6

672,754

671,349

+1,405

 

 

SFRM6

625,125

640,630

-15,505

 

 

SFRU6

590,125

590,529

-404

 

 

SFRZ6

677,002

666,455

+10,547

 

 

SFRH7

476,379

472,299

+4,080

 

 

SFRM7

411,859

406,431

+5,428

 

 

SFRU7

284,237

287,142

-2,905

 

 

SFRZ7

270,188

267,479

+2,709

 

 

SFRH8

216,082

216,838

-756

 

 

SFRM8

181,891

179,036

+2,855

 

 

SFRU8

119,874

120,108

-234

 

 

EU-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: 3/6/12-Month EU-Bills

Feb-05 11:07
Type3-month EU-bill6-month   EU-bill12-month EU-bill
MaturityMay 9, 2025Aug 8, 2025Feb 6, 2026
AmountE1.35blnE1.371blnE1.472bln
TargetE1.5blnE1.5blnE1.5bln
PreviousE1.24blnE1.35blnE950mln
Avg yield2.487%2.350%2.190%
Previous2.615%2.505%2.345%
Bid-to-cover1.96x2.32x2.14x
Previous1.45x1.73x2.94x
Previous dateJan 22, 2025Jan 22, 2025Jan 22, 2025

EQUITIES: EU Bank put spread

Feb-05 11:04

SX7E (21st Mar) 150/135ps 1x1.5, bought for 0.65 in 6k.