EURGBP TECHS: Impulsive Bull Cycle
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8462 High Jan 24
- RES 1: 0.8419 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg
- PRICE: 0.8409 @ 16:03 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 0.8360/8324 Low Mar 6 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A strong rally in EURGBP from its recent lows highlights a short-term reversal. The cross has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The impulsive rally this week signals scope for an extension towards 0.8419, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8326, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low.
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EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8421 High Jan 27
- RES 2: 0.8363/69 High Jan 3 / 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8336 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 high-low range
- PRICE: 0.8326 @ 16:03 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 0.8248 Low Feb 3
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP traded in a volatile manner on Monday and for now remains above this week’s low. The bear cycle that started Jan 20 is in play and Monday’s initial sell-off strengthens a bearish threat. A resumption of weakness would open the first key support at 0.8223, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, the 20-day EMA is seen as a key short-term resistance - at 0.8369. A breach of the average would be a bullish development.
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation: Second Consecutive New Low
RRP usage extends to new low of $78.788B this afternoon from $85.654B Tuesday. Today's usage compares to previous low of $92.863B on Monday, January 27 - the lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties falls to 28 from 34 prior.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance Update: $3.5B PepsiCo Launch, Waiting for IBM
Total $3.5B PepsiCo 4pt debt launched recently. Still waiting on IBM 5pt to launch. For comparison, IBM had issued $5.5B back in January 2024 covering 7 tranches: $600M 2Y +45, $500M 3Y +55, $500M 5Y +65, $500M 7Y +75, $1B 10Y +85, $1B 20Y +85, $1.4B 30Y +100
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 02/05 $5.5B #Republic of Poland $2.75B 5Y +75, $2.75B 10Y +105
- 02/05 $3.5B #PepsiCo $500M 2Y +22, $750M 3Y +27, $1B 5Y +40, $1.25B 10Y +60
- 02/05 $3B #UBS $1.5B PerpNC5.5 7%, $1.5B PerpNC10 7.125%
- 02/05 $2.5B #US Bancorp $1.3B 6NC5 +80, $1.2B 11NC10 +100
- 02/05 $2.5B #IDA 10Y SOFR+61
- 02/05 $2B #Citigroup PerpNC5 6.95%
- 02/05 $1B #Minera Mexico 7Y +140
- 02/05 $1B #Citadel Finance 5Y +170
- 02/05 $1B *KFW 4% 2026 TAP SOFR+20
- 02/05 $1B #BBVA Mexico 10NC5 7.625%
- 02/05 $500M #Healthpeak LLC 10Y +102
- 02/05 $Benchmark IBM 3Y +45, 5Y +60, 7Y +70, 10Y +80, 30Y +105
- 02/05 $Benchmark Pacific Life 5Y +80a
- 02/05 $2.5B Republic of Turkiye 7Y 7.2%
- Expected Thursday:
- 02/06 $Benchmark IFC 4.5Y SOFR+36a
