INDIA: India Country Wrap:  RBI Expected to Up Purchases of Bonds. 

• RES 4: 117.792 50-day EMA        
• RES 3: 117.490 Low Dec 30    
• RES 2: 117.300 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 117.170 Intraday high                            
• PRICE: 117.110 @ 05:43 GMT Jan 21  
• SUP 1: 116.650/280 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and bear trigger                
• SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont) 
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing     

A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact, however, a corrective phase is in play and the contract maintains a firmer short-term tone. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a short-term reversal and the start of a corrective cycle. An extension higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.300, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, the Jan 14 / 15 low, would resume the downtrend.

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 3: 1.0568 High Dec 10
• RES 2: 1.0461 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.0437 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 1.0379 @ 05:59 GMT Jan 21
• SUP 1: 1.0260/0178 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0097 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing    

The latest recovery in EURUSD appears corrective, however, the pair has breached the 20-day EMA, at 1.0346, and pierced trendline resistance at 1.0393, drawn from the Sep 30 ‘24 high. A clear breach of the line would expose the 50-day EMA at 1.0461. Clearance of this average would strengthen a bullish condition. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.0178, the Jan 13 low. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish.

• RES 4: 137.75 Low Dec 10            
• RES 3: 135.15 High Dec 13 
• RES 2: 132.41 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 132.15 Intraday high                 
• PRICE: 132.03 @ 05:37 GMT Jan 21
• SUP 1: 131.00 Low Jan 16        
• SUP 2  131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger           
• SUP 3: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)      

The Jan 15 rally in Bund futures highlighted a short-term reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that is also allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. A continuation higher would open 132.41, the 20-day EMA. The medium-term trend is unchanged, it remains bearish. The bear trigger has been defined at 130.28, the Jan 15 low, a break would resume the downtrend.