EM ASIA CREDIT: Indonesia (INDON, Baa2/BBB/BBB) intervenes in markets

• RES 4: 107.065 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 106.965 High Jan 3  
• RES 2: 106.695 High Jan 21 / 22
• RES 1: 106.692 20-day EMA      
• PRICE: 106.545 @ 05:35 GMT Jan 28   
• SUP 1: 106.450/435 Low Jan 24 / 15 and the bear trigger             
• SUP 2: 106.375 Low Oct 31  (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: 106.342 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.255 3.000 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing

A medium-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent gains appear corrective. The Jan 15 recovery highlighted a short-term reversal and the start of the corrective phase. Key near-term resistance at 106.692, the 20-day EMA, remains intact for now. A break of the EMA would signal scope for a stronger bounce. 106.435, the Jan 15 low has been defined as the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

• RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19 
• RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing    
• RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 1.2520/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 
• PRICE: 1.2445 @ 06:00 GMT Jan 28
• SUP 1: 1.2387/2294 20-day EMA / Low Jan 23  
• SUP 2: 1.2229 Low Jan 21
• SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play. The pair has cleared the 20-day EMA, marking an extension of the reversal that started Jan 13. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2520 and an important resistance. Clearance of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they  remain bearish. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.2100, the Jan 10 low and bear trigger.

• RES 4: 117.820 High Jan 3          
• RES 3: 117.627 50-day EMA    
• RES 2: 117.490 Low Dec 30  
• RES 1: 117.133/180 20-day EMA / High Jan 22                            
• PRICE: 116.800 @ 05:37 GMT Jan 28  
• SUP 1: 116.550/280 Low Jan 24 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and bear trigger                
• SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont) 
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing     

A short-term bullish corrective phase in Bobl futures is in play - for now - despite the pullback from its recent highs. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal and the start of the correction. An extension higher would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.133, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, Jan 14 / 15 low, would resume the downtrend.