NEW ZEALAND: Inflation Expectations Well Anchored Around Band Mid-Point

China can maintain low single digit export growth in 2025 despite rising trade tensions with the U.S., supported by international trade accelerating from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.4% this year, according to Feng Lin, executive director at Orient Securities, who noted China’s exports have never contracted when global growth was positive. Feng said U.S. trade tensions will be mitigated by the flexibility and resilience of exporters as demonstrated during the first trade war from 2018 to 2019. Additionally, the relatively high prosperity of the global electronics industry, new energy vehicles and cross-border e-commerce will firm up demand for exports.

China’s expansion of new infrastructure and energy industries in 2025 will drive growth in demand and prices for non-ferrous metal, noted Wang Hongying, dean at the China Financial Derivatives Investment Research Institute. Zeng Ning, deputy director at CITIC Futures, noted the real-estate sector will drag demand for commodities in the foreseeable future. Crude steel production is expected to decline in 2025 due to insufficient domestic demand, low industrial profits and output control policies, according to Wang Guoqing, director at the Lange Steel Network Research Centre, who also noted steel exports will decrease in 2025 to around 80-100 million tonnes due to increased global tariffs. (Source: 21st Century Business Herald)

China’s top securities watchdog will make every effort to stabilise and boost the capital market in 2025 by leveraging the central bank's two structural monetary tools, and responding to market concerns promptly, according to a statement on the China Securities Regulatory Commission website. The CSRC will further facilitate the entry of medium and long-term funds, improve overseas listing registration, and expand cross-border connectivity of the capital market, the statement said.