RUSSIA: Inflation Forecasts Edge Higher in Latest CBR Analyst Survey
* Russian and US officials may hold talks today after Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, but as a remi...
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STIR: Euribor Futures Dragged Lower By Core EGBs
Euribor futures are being dragged lower by core EGBs this morning, currently -1.0 to -2.5 ticks through the blues. Heavy sovereign supply appears the main driver of EGBs this morning, with a bid in oil prices and digestion of US President Trump’s steel/aluminium tariff announcements (and the latest EU retaliatory threats) also factoring in.
- The Feb 3 highs capped upside in ERZ5 and ERM6 yesterday, with those contracts now back within last week’s ranges.
- ECB-dated OIS are up to 1bp more hawkish through 2025, with 88bps of easing priced through year-end.
- Markets tilt in favour of three more 25bp cuts across the next three decisions, with 64bps of easing priced through June.
- ECB Executive Board member Schnabel participates in a panel appearance this evening (1700GMT). With a light regional data calendar, tariff-related headline flow and Fed Chair Powell’s Senate testimony will be in focus.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.418 | -24.6 |
| Apr-25 | 2.224 | -44.0 |
| Jun-25 | 2.024 | -64.0 |
| Jul-25 | 1.939 | -72.5 |
| Sep-25 | 1.848 | -81.6 |
| Oct-25 | 1.828 | -83.7 |
| Dec-25 | 1.783 | -88.1 |
| Feb-26 | 1.780 | -88.4 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 2: $2955.3 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11
- PRICE: $2912.7 @ 08:17 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: $2834.3 - Low Feb 6
- SUP 2: $2776.3 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2754.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2716.9 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal has again traded to a fresh cycle high. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2776.3, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bull Flag Formation
- RES 4: 107.233 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20
- RES 2: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.045 High Jan 3
- PRICE: 106.925 @ 08:07 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 106.805 Low Jan 3
- SUP 2: 106.772 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 106.600/515 Low Jan 31 / 30
- SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support
A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play. The contract has recently traded through a number of important resistance points and the latest impulsive gains highlight a stronger reversal. Furthermore, the recent pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. The focus is on 107.081, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 106.775, the 20-day EMA. First support is 106.805, the Feb 3 low.
