US DATA: Initial Claims Surprise With Highest Since Dec But No Standout Driver

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• MNI:US NOV FHFA HPI SA +0.3% V +0.5% OCT; +4.2% Y/Y

Reuters reports that Prime Minister Robert Fico will meet with European Commission officials in Brussels on Thursday 30 Jan to discuss the issue of gas transit into and through Slovakia. The meeting comes as Fico remains under significant political pressure following the gov't effectively losing its majority in the National Council and mass protests in cities across the country demanding the gov't revert back towards a pro-EU and NATO stance.

• Slovakia has threatened Ukraine with cutting assistance to refugees following Kyiv's halting of Russian gas supplies to Europe via its pipeline network since the start of 2025. The European Commission is continuing talks with Ukraine over the issue, with Slovakia and Hungary to be included in discussions. There is speculation that 'Azeri' gas could be piped to Slovakia as part of an agreement backed by Ukraine.
• While engaging with the EU on gas supplies, Fico is in a vulnerable position domestically. Following the expulsion of two deputies from the centre-left Hlas-SD party, which sits in the governing coalition, the gov't only holds 72 seats in the 150-member legislature. Controversial plans to amend the constitution, including provisions that would look to limit the primacy of EU law over Slovak law, have seen the protest movement's numbers swell.
• Fico has sought to downplay the scale of opposition, claiming that he is "not interested in political races, but only in the outcome.” Without some compromise with opposition deputies his gov't will remain at risk from confidence motions going forward.