ITALY: Fin Min Announces Windfall Tax On Company Profits

Oct-03 13:45

Speaking at the Bloomberg Future of Finance event in Milan, Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti raised the prospect of windfall taxes on companies intended to boost the gov'ts fiscal outlook. Giorgetti: "We will be approving a budget that will require sacrifices from everyone, which means taxing extra profits. It means taxing profits made and revneues made, and it is and effort that the whole country must undertake which means individuals, but also small, medium and large companies."

  • Reuters reported over the summer claimed that the gov't was not contemplating a windfall tax, but Giorgetti appears to have performed a U-turn on the idea.
  • The announcement of a windfall tax on bank profits in August 2023 sparked a rout in Italian stocks, resulting in the gov't watering down proposals but after the incident had already dented the economic credibility of PM Giorgia Meloni's administration.
  • While Meloni has been able to carry support within her tripartite gov't coalition on most domestic and foreign policy issues, on the economy there remain notable splits. Giorgetti hails from the right-wing populist League of Deputy PM Matteo Salvini, and Meloni's national-conservative Brothers of Italy are also likely to support such a move. However, the pro-business centre-right Forza Italia founded by the late Silvio Berlusconi is seen as less inclined to back a windfall tax. 

Historical bullets

MNI: US AUG FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI 47.9 (FLASH: 48.0); JUL: 49.6

Sep-03 13:45
  • MNI: US AUG FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI 47.9 (FLASH: 48.0); JUL: 49.6

MNI: US AUG FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI 47.9 (FLASH: 48.0); JUL: 49.6

Sep-03 13:45
MNI: US AUG FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI 47.9 (FLASH: 48.0); JUL: 49.6

BONDS: Core FI Rallies Amid Little Headline Flow; Oil and Equities Supporting

Sep-03 13:44

Core FI futures have rallied sharply over the past ~60 minutes, with TY futures now back at last Friday’s highest levels and Bund/Gilt futures also breaking out of the week’s ranges.

  • There was no initial headline trigger for the move higher in USTs, but flow driven buying got a further tailwind from the renewed pullback in oil prices (after the Libyan Central Bank Governor hinted at an agreement to return domestic supply back to the market) and weakness amongst US tech names at the equity open.
  • There have been more limited moves at the short-end though, with cash curve having bull flattened and year-end rate cut pricing across the Fed/ECB/BOE not seeing major repricing (Year-end Fed pricing still eyes ~98bps of easing, inline with last week's levels).
  • Gilts outperform Bunds and USTs, with the removal of syndication-related hedging pressure potentially helping there.
  • Broader focus turns to the US S&P and ISM manufacturing surveys at 1445/1500BST.