WTI TECHS: (J5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
Mar-13 07:31
- RES 4: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $73.33 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: $70.20 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $68.36 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $67.70 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 13
- SUP 1: $65.22 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $63.61 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $58.01 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 - 11 price swing
A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest sell-off has resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance is $70.10, the 50-day EMA.
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USD: Finding a bid into the European session
Feb-11 07:27
- Looking at the Overnight session for the Dollar against G10, overall it was a steady flat session, the Kiwi was the best performer, albeit just up a tiny 0.16% and at the other end, the CAD was down 0.08%.
- Since the European Cash Govie open, the Dollar is seeing a bid emerging, European Desks are catching up with the Overnight news, but also note that we have some heavy Bond supply today, which should weigh on Futures.
- The CAD is now down 0.14%, and broader offers are going through the ILS, GBP, MXN, CHF and ZAR, all testing their respective tight traded low.
BUNDS: Heavy suppply and Fed Powell are in focus Today
Feb-11 07:17
- There's very little change for Bund, although the overnight session sees a slightly wider range, volumes on both sides of the Atlantic are on the low side.
- Bund and Tnotes are offered, after Trump ordered a 25% Tariff on all Steel and Aluminium Imports, but the German contract remains within the Initial support of 132.72 and resistance at 133.86.
- For the US 10yr, TYH5 is testing trendline right here at 109.03, although most desks will look for immediate support at 109.01, the fast market printed low, post NFP.
- This is a lighter Week on the Data front, with the US CPI (Wednesday) the key release, and for the UK, GDP (Thursday).
- There's no notable Data due for today.
- BoE Mann gave an Interview with the FT Yesterday, so today could be a lesser event, attention will be on Powell who testifies at the Senate.
- SUPPLY: Early focus will be on supply in Europe and later in the US, Netherlands €2bn 2047 (equates to 30.3k Bund) should weigh, Germany €5bn Bobl (equates to ~47.5k Bobl) will weigh. US Sells $58bn of 3yr Notes.
- SYNDICATION: EU 2031 Tap/2050 Green, Italy 2040, UK 2035.
- SPEAKERS: BoE Mann, Bailey, Fed Powell, Hammack, Williams, Bowman, ECB Schnabel.
MNI: NORWAY Q4 MAINLAND GDP -0.4% Q/Q
Feb-11 07:07
- MNI: NORWAY Q4 MAINLAND GDP -0.4% Q/Q
