SWITZERLAND DATA: January CPI Preview [2/2] - Energy To Drag Headline
Feb-12 18:25
- Focus within the print lies on domestic and services inflation, with the latter's momentum (3m/3m Saar) measure having decelerated significantly during 2024 (to 0.89% from 2.38% Dec'23). A continuation of that trend should also see the Y/Y rate, currently at 1.60%, further decelerate.
- Electricity prices will see around a 10% M/M decrease in January according to national electricity commission Elcom, which would have around a 0.2pp negative contribution to headline CPI - and thus fully accounts for its expected deceleration in January.
- However, there are only five analysts in the Bloomberg survey forecasting core CPI. And the median (and mean) of their headline CPI forecasts is 0.3%Y/Y (a tenth below the wider consensus). So it seems as though these analysts take into account the change in electricity prices with a further negative contribution from core items.
- Additionally, the January release should also bring a basket reweighting - which we do not expect to bring a material impact on the overall inflation rates, though.
- Looking further ahead, a UBS survey sees nominal wage growth at 1.4% in 2025 - similar to a KOF study looking at 1.6% (compared to around 1% average during the 2010's according to UBS), so some pressure remains here.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US: NATO Approval Of US Leadership Fragile Despite Biden's Multilateralism
Jan-13 18:21
A new survey from Gallup has found that the reputation of US leadership remains fragile, across NATO member countries, despite US President Joe Biden’s attempt to shore up the transatlantic partnership.
- Gallup: “In the last year of Biden’s presidency, the median approval of U.S. leadership across NATO’s 30 member countries was 35%, the lowest of his term. Median disapproval was 51%, the highest of his term.
- “Historically, these ratings were still relatively better than those under Trump or during George W. Bush’s last two years in office. However, ratings under Biden were worse than those during most of the Barack Obama administration, when approval averaged 46% and disapproval averaged 26%.”
- The survey suggests, ahead of Trump's return to the White House on January 20, that Biden's focus on multilateral foreign policy has not wholly repaired tensions within NATO, particularly regarding disagreements in policy towards the Middle East and Ukraine.
- The alliance will be tested further in the coming weeks, with Trump previewing a return to his hardline first-term rhetoric on alliance contributions, calling on NATO members to hit 5% of GDP in defence spending - more than double the current benchmark target.
Figure 1: Approval of the Leadership of the United States, NATO Member Countries
Source: Gallup
PIPELINE: Midday Corporate Bond Roundup: Issuance Picking Up
Jan-13 18:14
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/13 $2.5B #Standard Chartered $1B 4NC3 +105, $500M 4NC3 SOFR+124, $1B 11NC10 +143
- 01/13 $2B #Deere $1.25B 10Y +68, $750M 30Y +75
- 01/13 $1.5B #CBA 5Y SOFR+69
- 01/13 $1B *EBRD 5.5Y SOFR+42
- 01/13 $1B #Plains All American 10Y +120
- 01/13 $750M #Ares Strategic 7Y +175
STIR: BLOCK: Mar'25 SOFR Midcurve Call Tree
Jan-13 17:53
- 10,000 0QH5 96.00/96.12/96.25 call trees, 3.5 net (2-legs over) at 1246:42ET
