CHILE: January Retail Sales, IP, Copper Production, Unemployment Due
Feb-28 11:21
- The usual raft of month-end activity data will be released at 1200GMT(0700ET), with retail sales and industrial production growth set to moderate in January and the unemployment rate expected to tick up. Retail sales growth is still expected to come in at a solid 4.2% y/y, however, and IP growth at 3.2% y/y, following the jump in activity in December. Copper production figures for January will also cross at the same time.
- Jan. Retail Sales YoY, est. 4.2%, prior 5.8%
- Jan. Industrial Production YoY, est. 3.2%, prior 8.8%
- Jan. Unemployment Rate, est. 8.2%, prior 8.1%
- BBVA says that the larger impact on the currency is likely to come from a downside surprise in the data, given that a strong expansion in activity is well embedded into expectations for the economy, partially keeping policy pricing on the more hawkish side. A reversal of that rate pricing could weigh on the CLP given that positioning is already stretched bullish CLP and showing early signs of reverting. They remain long USDCLP.
- Yesterday, CLP underperformed regional peers, weakening by 1.20% against the dollar to 953. Initial resistance is just above here at 956.57, the 20-day EMA, with firm resistance seen at 968.76, the 50-day EMA.
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ITALY DATA: ISTAT Consumer and Business Confidence Ticked Higher In Jan
Jan-29 11:21
Italian consumer confidence reversed 3 months of declines in January, ticking up to 98.2 (vs 96.5 cons, 96.3 prior). All sub-components (general economic climate, personal economic climate, current climate and future climate) saw increases relative to December, with the current climate indicator marking its strongest level since August 2023 at 99.8 (vs 98.6 prior).
- Business confidence also rose to its highest since April 2024 at 95.7 (vs 95.3 prior), driven by construction (104.2 vs 100.9 prior) and manufacturing (86.8 vs 85.8 cons, 85.9 prior).
- Manufacturing confidence remains below its 2000-2019 average (of 91.0) though, with weak demand from major trading partners (e.g. Germany) and US-driven trade policy uncertainty weighing on Italy’s export-driven industrial base. The export order component amongst manufacturers weakened in January to -26.4 (vs -25.5 prior).
- Services confidence dipped slightly to 99.0 (vs 99.6 prior), while retail confidence was 106.5 (vs 106.9 prior).
- Italian flash GDP is due tomorrow, with consensus expecting a soft 0.1% Q/Q reading. The flash release will only provide qualitative details of expenditure/production drivers of GDP, not a quantitative breakdown.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call Condor vs Put Spread
Jan-29 11:15
ERM5 97.875/98.00/98.125/98.25c condor vs 97.5625/97.4375ps, bought the condor for 0.75 in 2k.
SONIA: Call fly seller
Jan-29 11:11
SFIM5 96.00/96.50/97.00c fly sold at 4.5 down to 4.25 in 2.5k.
