OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In WTI Points South
Mar-11 11:41
On the commodity front, Gold is in consolidation mode. The trend condition remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. A stronger rally would refocus attention on $2962.2, a 2.00 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead suggest scope for a deeper correction and expose support around the 50-day EMA, at $2826.3. The 50-day average marks a key support.
In the oil space, a bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforce current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $70.36, the 50-day EMA.
BUNDS: USDJPY extends gains
Mar-11 11:38
USDJPY is helped to session high, taking its cue from the US Tnotes (TYM5) testing session low here.
Initial support in the contract is seen at 110.21, Yesterday's gap.
For the USDJPY, Friday's high is situated at 148.20.
GILT SYNDICATION: 1.875% Sep-49 I/L gilt: Allocations out
Mar-11 11:36
Spread set at 0.125% Aug-48 linker (GB00BZ13DV40) + 1.0bp (Guidance was +1.0/1.5bps)
Size: GBP5.0bln (larger than the GBP4.0-4.5bln MNI expected) - MNI note: This is the largest ever gilt linker syndication
Books in excess of GBP67.5bln (inc JLM interest of GBP4bln) - MNI note: That is the largest ever book for a gilt linker syndication
HR : 90% vs 0.125% Aug-48 linker
Maturity: 22 September 2049
ISIN: GB00BT7J0134
Coupon: 1.875%, long first
Settlement: 12 March 2025 (T+1)
JLMs: BofA Securities, J.P. Morgan, Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets (B&D/DM), and UBS Investment Bank
Timing: Hedge deadline 11:50GMT, pricing later today