FED: Jefferson Sticks To ‘No Need To Hurry’ Guidance Post-Liberation Day

Apr-03 16:51

Fed Governor Jefferson (permanent voter) says there is no need to hurry to make rate adjustments, repeating a stance from Feb 19 when he last spoke on mon pol. He doesn’t go into detail on potential tariff implications after yesterday’s Liberation Day announcements besides saying there are multiple significant changes currently in progress. Gov. Cook is still to come at 1430ET but expect the clearer Fed steer to come from Chair Powell tomorrow at 1125ET in post-payrolls comments. 

  • Jefferson, from the full speech: "In my view, there is no need to be in a hurry to make further policy rate adjustments. The current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate."
  • This top line stance is very similar to his last remarks on Feb 19: “I believe that, with a strong economy and a solid labor market, we can take our time to assess the incoming data to make any further adjustments to our policy rate.”
  • Some highlights from today's speech: "If the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward 2%, the current policy restraint could be retained for longer. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, policy could be eased accordingly,"
  • “Significant changes in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies currently are in process. It will be crucial to evaluate the cumulative effect of these policy changes as we assess the economy and consider the path of monetary policy. Of course, at the Fed, we look at the whole of the economy and many factors that shape it.”
  • “If uncertainty persists or worsens, economic activity may be constrained. An important lesson  learned in recent years, however, is that American consumers have been resilient, and negative sentiment reported in surveys often does not translate into a slowdown in actual activity.”

Historical bullets

US STOCKS: Early Equities Roundup: Sell First, Ask (Tariff) Questions Later

Mar-04 16:48
  • Stocks continued to trade weaker at the start of the global trade war. Sell first, ask questions later as markets have yet to experience the impact of 25% US import tariffs against Canada & Mexico, 20% on China, not to mention agriculture products starting April 2.
  • Currently, the DJIA trades down 686.31 points (-1.59%) at 42503.93 (lowest since mid-Jan'25), S&P E-Minis down 86.75 points (-1.48%) at 5774.5 (lowest since mid-Sep'24), Nasdaq down 205.3 points (-1.1%) at 18144.75 (lowest since early Oct'24).
  • Financial and Consumer Discretionary sectors lead the broad based, carry over decline: banks and services led laggers in the former with Citigroup -7.52%, Bank of America -7.16%, Discover Financial Services -6.85%, Capital One -6.77%, KeyCorp -6.65% and Wells Fargo -6.65%.
  • Aside from cruise lines whose stocks traded -7.0-7.5%, Best Buy fell 14.01% despite beating earnings estimates as tariffs are "highly likely" to raise costs BBY's CEO said. Meanwhile, Tesla fell -6.67% and GM declined 4.2%.
  • On the positive side, Health Care and Consumer Staples resisted the sell-off. Molina Healthcare +3.42%, STERIS +2.60%, UnitedHealth Group +2.18% and Elevance Health +2.05% buoyed the Health Care Sector, while Walgreens Boots Alliance +6.09%, Hershey +2.34% and Dollar General +2.14% underpinned the Consumer Staples sector.
  • Earnings expected after the close include: Crowdstrike Holdings, Ross Stores, Foot Locker, Campbell's, Abercrombie & Fitch, Brown-Forman Corp, Marvell Technology and Victoria's Secret.

TRUDEAU WILL ONLY CONSIDER EXPORT TAX IF THERE'S BROAD SUPPORT

Mar-04 16:43
  • TRUDEAU WILL ONLY CONSIDER EXPORT TAX IF THERE'S BROAD SUPPORT

TRUDEAU SAYS TRUMP WANTS CANADIAN ECONOMY TO COLLAPSE

Mar-04 16:32
  • TRUDEAU SAYS TRUMP WANTS CANADIAN ECONOMY TO COLLAPSE
  • TRUDEAU SAYS CANADA WILL NEVER BE ANNEXED BY THE U.S.