JET FUEL: Jet Fuel Remains Bright Spot for Refiners: BNEF
Resilient jet fuel demand provides some support for refiners battling an oversupplied refined products market and pressure on refining margins, BNEF said.
- Road transport fuel demand is seen peaking by 2027, while jet fuel demand will rise 75% by 2050, BNEF estimates.
- Long term, the structurally bearish demand profile from previously dominant parts of the barrel like transport fuels means fuel producers need to adapt their product yield.
- Aviation fuels are also promising for refiners pivoting towards biofuels: SAF demand is seen hitting 836k b/d by 2050 compared to 22.5k b/d today.
- Despite the current focus on renewable diesel for producers, SAF production could hold more promise in the long run as it is the only viable option for decarbonizing aviation over the next few decades.
- Consequently, producers have started to increase SAF capacity at the expense of renewable diesel at their facilities, although feedstocks remain a constraint.
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US: SOFR FIX - 28/01/25
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 4.31032 -0.00268
- 3M 4.28689 -0.00698
- 6M 4.22963 -0.0166
- 12M 4.13904 -0.04071
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AUSTRIA: FPÖ & ÖVP Struggle To Reach Consensus Amid Bank Levy Speculation
Talks continue between the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) and the conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) as they seek to reach consensus on a programme for gov't. There are reports of disagreement between the parties over the FPÖ's alleged demand for a bank levy, first reported in Kronen Zeitung. The report claims the measure would be "a temporary "special levy" on excess profits, with which up to seven billion euros could be skimmed off from the profits of banks for the duration of the seven-year budget consolidation."
- Der Standard reports the levy "has not been an issue in the negotiations between the FPÖ and the ÖVP, according to the ÖVP. "Perhaps it will come," shrugged an ÖVP negotiator, "we will find out." And then we will just have to talk about it."
- Representatives from each party meet in the tax and finance subgroup tomorrow (29 Jan). For the FPÖ, former State Secretary of Finance Herbert Fuchs will be lead rep. The ÖVP will be represented by Chamber of Commerce President Harald Mahrer and Raiffeisen Secretary General Clemens Niedrist. Niedrist formerly served as cabinet chief for then-Finance Minister Magnus Brunner, and his presence has raised questions about the closeness of the ÖVP to the banking sector.
- Der Standard report claims "Neither the FPÖ nor the ÖVP negotiators can imagine that there will be a government next week," with the party leaders yet to meet during the course of talks.
