US DATA: Johnson Redbook Points To Solid April For Retailers, With Some Caveats
April is shaping up as solid for retail sales, with Johnson Redbook Same-Store Retail month-to-date Y/Y sales up 7.0% (the week ending April 19 was +7.4% Y/Y).
- This brings month-to-date retail sales in the series (which captures around 80% of Census Bureau retail sales) above retailers' targeted 6.4% gain.
- If the current rate is sustained for the full month, April Johnson Redbook retail sales would be the strongest Y/Y since December 2022.
- The latest gain is party a calendar effect, however, which may be partially paid back next week as "a later Easter [compared to 2024] contributed to higher sales volume during the week", and "retailers anticipate declining sales volume next week, as most businesses closed for Easter Sunday".
- But anecdotes were generally positive: "the warm weather had a positive impact on the seasonal apparel market... food and consumables also performed well. Additionally, home improvement and outdoor merchandise showed signs of increased demand as the season changes.
- There was also some indication of tariff front-running continuing in the week: "shoppers took the opportunity to stock up on essential items and larger purchases to avoid upcoming tariff hikes."
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CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION
US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows
Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.
- That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
- This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
- We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
- Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
