TURKEY: JP Morgan Raise CPI Forecasts, Expect CBRT to Reduce Rate Cut Size
Mar-19 14:13
Following the latest political developments, JP Morgan revise up their year-end inflation forecast to 29.5% oya (previously 27.2%) due to FX pass-through in March and April. They now expect CPI to be 3.2% m/m in March (previously 2.3%) due to FX pass-through in addition to the impact of Ramadan and adverse weather conditions on food prices. In response to inflationary pressures, the CBRT is likely to reduce the size of rate cuts to 150bp starting in April to 35% by year-end (previously 30%), in their view.
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SONIA: Call spread buyer
Feb-17 14:07
SFIJ5 96.15/96.25, bought for half in 7.5k.
CANADA DATA: Housing Starts Saw A Tepid Rise In January
Feb-17 14:00
- Housing starts were lower than expected in January at a seasonally adjusted annualized 239.7k (cons 252.5k), rising just 3% M/M after -13% M/M in Dec.
- The increase in Canada's urban centres was led by multi-units, specifically purpose-built rentals in Quebec and British Columbia, with urban multi-units +4.6% vs -2.4% for single units.
- The six-month trend meanwhile saw starts -2.5% in January from -0.7% in Dec.
- "While these increases show early signs of progress to begin the year, foreign trade risks add significant uncertainty for housing construction going forward," said Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, CMHC's Deputy Chief Economist.
- CMHC also said housing starts are expected to slow down from 2025 to 2027, "mainly due to decreases in condominium apartment starts."
FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 14/17/27/49-week BTFs
Feb-17 13:55
| Type | 14-week BTF | 17-week BTF | 27-week BTF | 49-week BTF |
| Maturity | May 28, 2025 | June 18, 2025 | Aug 27, 2025 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Amount | E2.894bln | E498mln | E2.097bln | E1.994bln |
| Target | E2.5-2.9bln | E0.1-0.5bln | E1.7-2.1bln | E1.6-2.0bln |
| Previous | E2.795bln | E598mln | E1.898bln | E1.897bln |
| Avg yield | 2.452% | 2.428% | 2.369% | 2.276% |
| Previous | 2.475% | 2.737% | 2.395% | 2.224% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.36x | 7.14x | 3.22x | 3.42x |
| Previous | 4.58x | 4.31x | 3.31x | 4.44x |
| Previous date | Feb 10, 2025 | Nov 25, 2024 | Feb 03, 2025 | Feb 10, 2025 |
