FOREX: JPY Shoots to Top of G10 as GDPNow Squeezes Risk Appetite
Mar-28 14:49
- Fading risk appetite here is working in favour of JPY and EUR, and against AUD, NZD in recent trade - as slippage for US equities puts the e-mini S&P on course for a test of 5625.06 - the 76.4% retracement of the bounce off the pullback low.
- AUD/JPY also among the decliners, re-correlating with US equities as the market concern around US stagflation continues to pick up - cross is now off 0.75% on the day, marking a failure to break the key resistance we noted this week at the 50-dma (today at 95.30), which has failed to break on several occasions across this year.
- The 15 minute candle chart shows the cross through uptrendline support drawn off the pullback low - opening 94.25 as the next consequential support.
- Spot vol here is supporting the front-end of the implied curve: EUR/USD one-week vols capturing 'Liberation Day' on Wednesday now clear 9 points, bucking the trend of slipping vol over the course of the month.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Pierces Support
Feb-26 14:46
- RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing
- RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 1: 6069.41/6166.50 20-day EMA / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 5980.00 @ 14:35 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: 5924.00 Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a reversal trigger
The latest move down in S&P E-Minis appears corrective, however, price has breached support at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. This exposed a key support at 5935.50, the Feb 3 low, that was pierced on Tuesday. A clear break of it would allow for a deeper retracement. MA studies are in a bull-mode condition that suggests the trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: June'25 5Y Sale
Feb-26 14:42
- -6,150 FVM5 107-15.25, post time bid at 0934:39ET, DV01 $271,000. The June 5Y contract trades 107-14.75 last (-1)
CROSS ASSET: Bitcoin and Gold have found some selling Interest
Feb-26 14:42
- There's been a sudden leg down in Metals, especially Gold and Silver, although not seen a clear new trigger, it comes along Bitcoin falling through Yesterday's low of $85,955.30.
- Bitcoin was over $3k down at one point but has recovered around $1k since.
- US Equities saw an initial sell off on the Cash open, but have lacked real momentum, Emini (ESH5) is still short of the Overnight printed low.
