BUNDS: Jumped 27 ticks post US CPI

The Bank of Spain has revised its 2025 GDP growth and inflation projections higher in its latest quarterly report.

• 2025 GDP growth is now expected at 2.7%, up from a previous forecast of 2.5% in December. This reflects the stronger-than-expected Q4 2024 GDP print (0.8% Q/Q) and signs of a stronger path for household incomes than previously assumed (which may have a positive impact on consumption).
• 2026 and 2027 GDP projections were unchanged at 1.9% and 1.7% respectively.
• The 2025 headline inflation projection was revised up to 2.5% (vs 2.1% in the December round), largely reflecting higher energy prices. Government measures to limit public transport price increases provide some offset.
• The forecasts “do not explicitly incorporate the possible impact on activity of the higher levels of uncertainty and geopolitical tensions”…“Nor do they incorporate the increase in tariffs by the United States on imports from Mexico, Canada and the EU, a matter about which considerable uncertainty persists”. As such, growth risks are tilted to the downside, and inflation risks slightly to the upside.
• The BOS notes that “it will be important to continue monitoring up to the point where Spanish economic activity can continue to maintain a rate of growth significantly superior to that of two of its main commercial partners -France and Germany-, as well as the evolution of private investment, which shows a particularly weak recovery path”. 

The Paris Defence and Strategy Forum 2025 is underway, with defence ministers and military chiefs from across the West meeting in the French capital for the three-day event. While officials will deliver public remarks, the most notable event is set to come today when French President Emmanuel Macron addresses on the sidelines of the forum ~30 defence chiefs regarding the prospect of peacekeeping forces being deployed to Ukraine in the event of any ceasefire. Macron is due to speak ~1730CET (1130ET, 1630GMT). 

• Mujtaba Rahman at Eurasia Group posts on X: "The meeting is intended to explore the nature and limits of a “reassurance” force of around 30,000 troops proposed by France and Britain to secure any ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Moscow has rejected the idea. Not all countries attending today’s talks have offered to send troops but all have indicated that they may take part in some way (ie financial or logistical support)."
• Bloomberg reported earlier comments from Western security officials claiming that Russian President Vladimir Putin's 'maximalist' position means he knows Ukraine and Europe will not accept his conditions and that he is content to continue the war in its current complexion.
• UK PM Sir Keir Starmer has convened a national leaders' videoconference on Saturday, 15 March, for a second meeting of the unofficial 'coalition of the willing' looking to provide peacekeepers or further support for Ukraine. 

• In the FI space, Bund futures are in consolidation mode and trading closer to their recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact. Last week’s impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.56 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is now within range. Note that the contract is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low.
• Gilt futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. Last week, the contract traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower, with sights on 90.49 next, a 1.618 projection of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing. The downtrend is oversold, the latest bounce has allowed this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance is 92.63, the Mar 5 high.