COPPER TECHS: (K5) Approaching A major Resistance

Philly Fed’s Harker (non-voter, retiring in June) sounded modestly less dovish speaking a month on since his last comments, seeing reason to hold rates steady but without last month’s caveat that it won’t be "for long". That said, he viewed the January CPI strength with skepticism and still sees inflation on a downward path. 

• "While I won’t commit to a specific timetable, I remain optimistic that inflation will continue a downward path and the policy rate will be able to decline over the long run."
• "All in all, the current data paints a picture of an American economy that continues to function from a position of strength," he said. Inflation is still elevated but moving in the right direction while labor is largely in balance, he said. "And these are reasons enough for holding the policy rate steady."
• Skepticism around CPI seasonality: “In the last decade, CPI inflation in January has surprised on the upside 9 out of 10 times. My conjecture is that seasonal adjustments are struggling to keep up with a fast-changing economy, and we need to parse the underlying trends from the month-to-month noise.”
• Full remarks here. 

• RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing     
• RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 6162.25 High Jan 24                 
• PRICE: 6145.25 @ 14:19 GMT Feb 17 
• SUP 1: 6075.54 20-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 6014.00/5935.50 Low Feb 10 / 3
• SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5842.50 Low Jan 14

S&P E-Minis traded higher last week and the contract maintains a firmer tone. The latest recovery undermines a recent bearish threat and attention turns to resistance at 6162.25, the Jan 24 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A move above this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend. Initial key support has been defined at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. A break would be a bearish development. 

• Philly Fed’s Harker (non-voter, retiring Jun 2025) is the first of three Fed speakers today despite the President’s Day holiday.
• The dovish leaning FOMC member is set to speak on the economic outlook 0930ET (text followed by Q&A), having last said on Jan 9 that the Fed can stay where we are [with policy rates] for a little bit but not for long.
• “I still see us on a downward policy rate path. Looking at everything before me now, I am not about to walk off this path or turn around…but the exact speed I continue to go along this path will be fully dependent upon the incoming data.”