COPPER TECHS: (K5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Mar-07 14:29
- RES 4: $514.40 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 2 - 17 - Feb 3 price swing
- RES 3: $503.59 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 2 - 17 - Feb 3 price swing
- RES 2: $500.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $488.50 - High Feb 14 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $472.40 @ 14:18 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: $451.15 - Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $449.27 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $422.80 - Low Feb 3 and key support
- SUP 4: $403.85 - Low Jan 2 and a bear trigger
Copper futures remain in a bull cycle, and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Wednesday’s strong gains reinforce this bullish theme. The move higher in the first half of February resulted in a break of 455.20, the Nov 5 high, and a print above 477.10, the Sep 30 2024 high. Sights are on $500.00 next. The latest pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is $449.27, the 50-day EMA.
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EQUITIES: US Cash opening calls
Feb-05 14:25
SPX: 6,030.2 (-0.1%); DJIA: 44,609 (+0.1%/+53pts); NDX: 21,453.8 (-0.5%).
STIR: Light Hawkish Reaction In Euribor Futures To Lane Speech
Feb-05 14:21
Light hawkish reaction in Euribor futures to Chief Economist Lane’s prepared remarks, seemingly on initial headlines covering upside inflation risks.
- Futures were already moving a little lower ahead of the speech’s release.
- ERZ5 is +0.5 ticks at 98.080, down from 98.100 around ~30 minutes ago.
- Overall, Lane’s comments were very much in line with President Lagarde’s press conference last Thursday. He also already referenced the need for policy rates to track a “middle path” earlier this month (Jan 13).
- ECB-dated OIS price ~87bps of easing through year-end, down from ~89bps before the speech was released.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.418 | -24.9 |
| Apr-25 | 2.226 | -44.1 |
| Jun-25 | 2.037 | -63.0 |
| Jul-25 | 1.952 | -71.5 |
| Sep-25 | 1.855 | -81.2 |
| Oct-25 | 1.834 | -83.4 |
| Dec-25 | 1.792 | -87.5 |
| Feb-26 | 1.793 | -87.4 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: March'25 30Y Ultra-Bond Buy
Feb-05 14:18
- +2,000 WNH5 120-29, buy through 120-27 post time offer at 0910:43ET, DV01 $380,000. The 30Y Ultra contract trades 121-03 last (+1-12).
