OIL: Kazakhstan Exceeded OPEC+ Quota In January
Feb-12 10:57
Kazakhstan exceeded its OPEC+ quota by 32k b/d in January, according to Platts data.
• Platts data shows that Kazakhstan produced 1.5m b/d in January 2025, above its OPEC+ quota of 1.468m b/d.
• This is a 100k b/d rise from Kazakh output of 1.4m b/d in December 2024, Platts data shows.
• Kazakhstan’s overall production has been boosted by increased output at the Tengiz field.
• Tengiz output hit 870,000 bpd in January, 45% higher than the field’s average output in 2024, according to Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry.
• Kazakhstan overproduction has been a persistent problem for OPEC+ as it has struggled to find adherence to caps within the group.
• The nation is on a compensation plan, but Kazakh production has been hitting daily record highs in recent weeks, drawing questions around its commitment.
• Kazakhstan reaffirmed its commitment to OPEC+ oil production obligations at the JMMC meeting on Feb. 3, saying it will also take the necessary measures in 2025 and 2026 to compensate for overproduction in 2024.
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BTP TECHS: (H5) Has Breached Key Support
Jan-13 10:55
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 121.43 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 120.70 High Dec 20
- RES 1: 118.30/119.96 High Jan 10 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.34 @ Close Jan 13
- SUP 1: 117.16 Low Jan 10
- SUP 2: 117.40 Low Nov 7 and a key support
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and last week’s move down reinforces current conditions. The contract has also traded lower today, marking a bearish start to this week’s activity. Price has breached support at 117.40, the Nov 7 low and a key level, strengthening the current bearish condition. This opens 116.59, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 119.96, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES: Credit Agricole Vol Option trade
Jan-13 10:51
XCA (19th Sep) 13^, bought for 2.12 and 2.13 in 6k.
US: SFR Call Spread vs Put
Jan-13 10:45
SFRU5 95.87/96.0625cs vs 95.25p, bought the cs -0.5 and flat in ~23.5k.
