OIL: Kazakhstan Revises Oil Ouptut Target for 2025 Down to 96.2m tons
Kazakhstan has revised oil output targets for 2025 down to 96.2m tons from 97.2m tons, Interfax said citing the Energy Ministry.
- Kazakhstan previously lowered its planned oil production for 2024 to 87.8mn tons, from 88.4mn tons previously expected.
- Observed shipments of CPC Blend crude from the terminal near Novorossiysk jumped to the highest in 11 months in December at around 1.48mb/d and up from 1.31mb/d in November.
- Kazakhstan last month confirmed commitment to OPEC+ oil production obligations in 2025 amid pledges to compensate for previous overproduction. Kazakhstan’s OPEC quota is set at 1.468mbpd in Q1 2025.
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Historical bullets
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- In FX, EURUSD is trading below Friday’s 1.0630 high. Despite being pierced, resistance at 1.0581, the 20-day EMA, remains intact. A close above this average would highlight a clear breach of it and signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery, towards 1.0710, the 50-day EMA. An extension higher would also allow for an unwinding of the recent oversold condition. The medium-term trend direction is down. The bear trigger is 1.0335, Nov 22 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.0461, the Dec 2 low.
- GBPUSD traded to a fresh short-term trend high on Friday before fading off highs. Recent gains are considered corrective and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA, signalling scope for a stronger. The next resistance to watch is 1.2836, the 50-day EMA, at 1.2840. The medium-term trend direction is down, the bear trigger is 1.2487, the Nov 22 low. First support lies at 1.2617, the Dec 2 low.
- A bear cycle in USDJPY remains intact. The pair traded to a fresh short-term trend low on Dec 3, highlighting a resumption of the retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 rally. Price has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bearish development. Sights are on 148.17, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 156.75, Nov 15 high. Initial firm resistance is 151.75, the 20-day EMA.
STIR: Net Long Setting Further Out The Strip Dominated Following NFP Data
OI data suggests that net long setting in SFRH6 through SFRU7 dominated from a positioning standpoint in the wake of Friday’s NFP release, although it was net short cover in SFRZ5 that provided the single largest net positioning swing.
- We will provide greater colour on STIRs and the latest Fed pricing run in an upcoming STIR bullet.
| 06-Dec-24 | 05-Dec-24 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRU4 | 1,232,323 | 1,260,057 | -27,734 | Whites | -6,892 |
SFRZ4 | 1,310,083 | 1,297,497 | +12,586 | Reds | +5,002 |
SFRH5 | 1,075,487 | 1,068,155 | +7,332 | Greens | +40,099 |
SFRM5 | 987,585 | 986,661 | +924 | Blues | +8,361 |
SFRU5 | 824,651 | 805,361 | +19,290 |
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SFRZ5 | 896,402 | 922,725 | -26,323 |
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SFRH6 | 560,493 | 555,083 | +5,410 |
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SFRM6 | 605,644 | 599,019 | +6,625 |
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SFRU6 | 642,550 | 632,506 | +10,044 |
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SFRZ6 | 714,210 | 692,399 | +21,811 |
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SFRH7 | 419,262 | 416,715 | +2,547 |
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SFRM7 | 358,155 | 352,458 | +5,697 |
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SFRU7 | 293,220 | 286,526 | +6,694 |
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SFRZ7 | 287,297 | 288,898 | -1,601 |
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SFRH8 | 200,859 | 198,380 | +2,479 |
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SFRM8 | 154,546 | 153,757 | +789 |
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EQUITIES: EU Bank call fly
SX7E (20th Dec) 147.50/150.00/152.50c fly, bought for 0.20 in 6k.
