AUDUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Levels Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6300/09 50-day EMA / High Feb 12
- PRICE: 0.6299 @ 16:30 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD traded slightly positive into the close but largely trades within the recent range. Despite recent gains, the trend structure remains bearish. Key resistance is at 0.6300 (pierced), the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of both levels is required to highlight a stronger reversal. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.6088, the Feb 3 low, and the bear trigger.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Late Mar'25 10Y Put Sale
- -29,500 TYH5 106 puts, 25 vs. 107-11.5/0.28%
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.190/360 High Dec 31 / High Dec 11
- PRICE: 95.940 @ 19:50 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 95.830 - 1.000 proj of the Dec 11 - 20 - 31 price swing
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
A bear cycle in Aussie 3-yr futures remains intact. The latest move down reinforces the bear theme and the contract has traded through the December low. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead signal scope for an extension towards 96.360, the Dec 11 high. Further out, the key resistance is at 96.730, the Sep 17 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Trades Through Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 1: 0.8451 High Jan 14
- PRICE: 0.8442 @ 20:20 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 0.8385 Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 0.8321/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
- SUP 3: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
- SUP 4: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and the cross traded higher Tuesday. The latest recovery undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has been cleared. Note too that 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8321.
