EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8378 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.8352 @ 06:35 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 0.8297/8248 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
The recent move higher in EURGBP still appears to have undermined a bearish threat, however, the pullback from the Feb 6 high also highlights a developing bearish threat. 0.8378, the Jan 6 high, has been defined as a key short-term pivot resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a continuation lower would open 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and bear trigger.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.8424 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- PRICE: 0.8395 @ 06:31 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 0.8321/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
- SUP 2: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP traded sharply higher last week and remains firm. The cross has cleared the December highs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Note too that 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has also been cleared. Sights are on 0.8424, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jan 13 high. A break of this level would open 0.8448, the Oct 31 high. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8318.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 107.065 High Jan 2
- RES 3: 106.965 High Jan 3
- RES 2: 106.873 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 106.650/785 High Jan 10 / 6
- PRICE: 106.535 @ 06:05 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 106.460 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 106.375 Low Oct 31 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 106.342 2.764 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.255 3.000 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness, including Monday's fresh cycle low, reinforces this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the bear leg and sights are on 106.375 next, the Oct 31 ‘24 low (cont). Firm resistance is seen at 106.873, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Consumer inflation report |
| 15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Producer Prices |
| 15-Jan | 1630 | BOE's Taylor Speech on Inflation Dynamics and Outlook | |
| 16-Jan | 0700 | Nov | GDP/ Trade/ Services/ Production/ Construction |
| 17-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Retail Sales |
| 21-Jan | 0700 | Nov/Dec | Labour Market Survey |
| 22-Jan | 0001 | Jan | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 22-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 24-Jan | 0001 | Jan | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 24-Jan | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 28-Jan | 0001 | Jan | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 30-Jan | 0930 | Dec | BOE M4/ Lending to Individuals |
| 03-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 05-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services PMI |
