IRAN: Khamenei-Neither Overly Optimistic Or Pessimistic On US Talks
ISNA reports comments from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following the first round of talks between Iranian and US officials in Oman over the weekend. Says "The talks may or may not reach a conclusion. We are neither very optimistic nor very pessimistic about these talks. Of course, we are very pessimistic about the other side, but we are optimistic about our own capabilities."
- Khamenei: "The country’s issues should not be tied to these talks, and the mistake that was made in the JCPOA, which made everything dependent on the progress of the negotiations, should not be repeated because the country becomes conditional and everything, including investment, is put on hold until the outcome of the negotiations is clear."
- Khamenei "The country's decision to negotiate has been well done in the first steps, after this we must proceed carefully, while the red lines are completely clear for us and for the other side"
- The second round of talks to take place on 19 April amid tensions over the location. Initially, Rome was the nominated city for the second round, but this has now moved back to Muscat according to Foreign Minsitry spox.
- US President Donald Trump accused Iran of "tapping us along" over the week's delay between meetings. Speaking in the Oval Office on 14 April, Trump threatened Iran with "something very harsh" to ensure Iran does not develop nuclear weapons, saying this could include strikes on nuclear sites.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
