BASIC INDUSTRIES: Kingspan FY Headlines

• A very tight overnight range for Bund, and a calmer session going into the European Cash Open.
• Last night's report that Trump was weighing a 10% tariff on China Import had very little impact across most assets, besides the Dollar of course and the Yuan.
• The German Bund saw a small gap lower on the Overnight open, which has now been closed, this was at 131.95, and the contract printed a 131.96 high, and 10 ticks off that high now.
• Initial resistance was seen at 132.14 Yesterday, and the contract printed a 132.15 high, this remains.
• Above that area, it opens to 132.41, but better is seen at 132.57.
• The first support is still at 131.50 (Friday's and Monday's low).
• There's no Tier 1 data for the session, the main focus for this Week is still the PMIs Friday.
• SUPPLY: Germany 2041, 2044 (equates combined 10.15k Buxl) should have a limited impact. US Sells $13bn of 20yr reopening.
• SYNDICATION: Finland 20yr, Spain 10yr.
• SPEAKERS: Reeves, ECB Lagarde, Villeroy, Knot, Rehn, Nagel.

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
• RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 119.90 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 119.45 @ Close Jan 21 
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

A medium-term bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and recent fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. However, from a short-term perspective, the latest rally highlights a corrective phase. Resistance to watch is 119.33, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8 
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 162.89 High Jan 15 
• PRICE: 162.23 @ 07:08 GMT Jan 22 
• SUP 1: 159.73 Low Jan 17     
• SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle

A short-term bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact despite the latest bounce. Recent weakness resulted in a print below support at 160.04, the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. The next price point to watch is 159.51, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a move above resistance at 162.89, the Jan 15 high, would reinstate the recent bullish theme.