CZK: Koruna Continues Ticking Lower, Flash GDP Estimates Match Expectations
Jan-31 09:13
EUR/CZK has traded with a modest bullish bias over the past three days, etching out some gains on a weekly basis as a result, ahead of the upcoming CNB monetary policy meeting. The pair last deals +0.005 at 25.141 and a clean break above the 50-DMA (25.154) and 100-DMA (25.209) would bring Jan 17 high of 25.317 into play. On the downside, the focus is still on the 25.0 figure.
- Preliminary data from the CZSO showed that the Czech economy grew by 1.6% Y/Y and by 0.5% Q/Q in 4Q24, which was in line with market expectations. Annual growth was slightly weaker than the CNB's +1.7% estimate, but the central bank's projection is slightly outdated at this point. The next one will be published alongside the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
- Czechia's M2 money supply rose by 7.4% Y/Y in December in a relatively sharp increase from November's +5.3% to the fastest pace since February. In a recent interview for Central Banking, Governor Michl said that he was monitoring monetary aggregates, with a focus on the three-month average of M2.
- Finance Minister Stanjura expressed scepticism about CNB Governor Michl's idea to explore the option of investing part of the central bank's foreign reserves in crypto assets. The Bank Board yesterday approved the proposal to study the use of alternative asset classes in international reserves management.
- During today's earnings call, Moneta Bank CEO Tomas Spurny told reporters that the current level of interest rates is "optimal" and that the CNB should not lower them in the next two months. He added that Czechia should seek to boost growth through structural reforms rather than looser monetary conditions.
- The CNB has entered its media blackout period ahead of next week's monetary policy decision.
- CZGB yields sit marginally lower; the PX Index has climbed to fresh cyclical highs.
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US TSYS: Tsy Curves Look To Finish 2024 at June'22 Highs
Dec-31 19:18
- Treasuries look to finish the last trading session of 2024 lower after reversing Tuesday morning support. Markets closed Wednesday for New Years day, resume full trade Thursday.
- The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-25.5 (-5.5) late in the day, 10Y yield near session high of 4.5871%. Curves bounced off flatter levels, 2s10s climbing to 34.344 -- the highest level since June 2022.
- Short end support, in turn, helped projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain momentum vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -20.6bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -29.8bp (-28.8bp).
- No substantive reaction to this morning's housing and regional Dallas Fed services activity data. Looking ahead to Thursday data (prior, est): Initial Jobless (219k, 221k) and Continuing Claims (1.910M, 1.890M) at 0830ET; S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (48.3, 48.3) at 0945ET; Construction Spending MoM (0.4%, 0.3%) at 1000ET.
- Treasury supply: $85B 4- & $80B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, $64B 17W bill auction at 1300ET.
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures, Gold Holding Higher
Dec-31 18:47
WTI futures are trading higher today as the contract extends recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at $71.97. A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.9 or +1.27% at $71.88
- Natural Gas down $0.32 or -8.13% at $3.618
- Gold spot up $19.24 or +0.74% at $2625.86
- Copper down $6.95 or -1.7% at $402.3
- Silver down $0.1 or -0.34% at $28.8383
- Platinum up $3.96 or +0.44% at $908.02
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Tech & Interactive Media Sectors Underperforming
Dec-31 18:36
- Stocks are trading near session lows after reversing early session gains. Though off this year's record highs (SPX Eminis 6178.75, DJIA 45,073.63, Nasdaq 20,204.58) major averages will finish the year with double digit gains: SPX Eminis +19.5%, DJIA +13.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 29.9%!
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 92.19 points (-0.22%) at 42474.46, S&P E-Minis down 28 points (-0.47%) at 5929.75, Nasdaq down 147 points (-0.8%) at 19337.13.
- Information Technology and Communication Services shares underperformed continued to underperform late Tuesday, shares of software and semiconductor makers weighing on the tech sector: Nvidia -1.61%, Advanced Micro Devices -1.36%, Crowdstrike Holdings -1.28%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares weighed on the Communication Services sector: Alphabet -0.9%, Live Nation -0.76%, Netflix -0.60%, Meta -0.41%.
- On the positive side, Energy and Materials sectors outperformed in the second half, oil & gas stocks buoyed the Energy sector as crude prices continued to rise (WTI +1.0 at 71.99): APA Corp +3.59%, Marathon Petroleum +2.46%, Occidental Petroleum +2.15%.
- Meanwhile, shares of chemical & fertilizer makers supported the Materials sector: Mosaic +2.44%, Celanese +1.42%, Dow +1.37%.
- Looking ahead, the next round of quarterly earnings kicks off mid-January with Blackrock, Bank of NY Melon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, US Bancorp, M&T Bank and PNC all reporting between January 13-16.
