CZK: Koruna Outperforms CE3 Peers, Final Rounds Of Pre-Blackout CNB Speak Eyed

Mar-19 10:46

EUR/CZK holds a narrow range, last deals -0.008 at 25.026. From a technical perspective, the key bearish target is provided by 24.896, which limited losses on Feb 26. Bulls look for a sustained break above the 50-DMA, which kicks in at 25.089.

  • The CNB's blackout period will start this afternoon ahead of next week's monetary policy decision. Most sell-side desks expect a pause at this meeting, despite there being room for more cuts further down the road.
  • CNB's Jakub Seidler told Bloomberg that he would support a pause in interest-rate cuts next week and said that market pricing pointing to 50bp of cuts over the next 12 months is "relatively fair".
  • According to the slides from her presentation published on the CNB's website, Deputy Governor Eva Zamrazilova said that "room for further CNB rate cuts is emerging, but prudence is still required."
  • CZGB yields have faltered across the curve, with 3s outperforming. The PX Index has edged higher, refreshing record highs.

Historical bullets

BONDS: BTP/Bund spread tests immediate support area

Feb-17 10:40
  • The BTP/Bund spread is back at the 106.00bps level, 1.9bp tighter so far on the Day.
  • The spread has found support multiple time at this level, back in December, January and also this Month.
  • Technically, we could be having a falling wedge, would be bullish, but investors will be watching how it develops at these lower levels.
  • A clear break through 106.00bps, opens to the Psychological 100.00, although better will be seen nearer the ~97.7bps area.

(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).

BTP Bund 17 02 25

NETHERLANDS: 2.5/5.5-month DTCs

Feb-17 10:37
Type2.5-month DTC5.5-month DTC
MaturityApr 29, 2025Jul 30, 2025
AmountE1blnE1.56bln
TargetE1.0-2.0blnE1.0-2.0bln
PreviousE1.92blnE1.47bln
Avg yield2.452%2.355%
Previous2.613%2.320%
Bid-to-cover2.95x1.9x
Previous1.84x1.3x
Previous dateJan 20, 2025Feb 03, 2025

GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 12-Month Bubill

Feb-17 10:31
Type12-month bubill
MaturityFeb 18, 2026
AllottedE2.18bln
PreviousE1.905bln
Total soldE3bln
TargetE3bln
Avg yield2.096%
Previous2.402%
Bid-to-cover1.63x
Previous3.22x
Bid-to-offer1.19x
Previous2.05x
Previous dateJan 13, 2025