CZK: Koruna Trades Flat, Awaits New Catalysts

Initial highlights from Rehn. Not much to deviate from the ECB’s March guidance at first glance. More insight will likely be provided in the Q&A: “We are not pre-committed to any interest rate path. Policy rates are set at each meeting based on the latest information and our comprehensive assessment, next time on 17 April. The Governing Council retains full freedom of action in times of pervasive uncertainty”.

• “Tariffs and the related uncertainty will hit investment and slow down growth everywhere. The latest indicators on the US economy point to weaker than expected growth, which would also affect growth prospects in Europe”.
• “The growth outlook for the euro area remains subdued” …“In addition to cyclical factors, the euro area economy is also experiencing structural problems. In the ECB’s new forecast, productivity growth is slower than before. The weakness appears to be more structural than previously. But it would be wrong to say that it is entirely structural”.
• “Although there is little to be positive about in the security situation in Europe, the expected increases in defence spending and investment are at least likely to support GDP growth over the medium-term”.
• “Inflation in the euro area is stabilising at the ECB's 2% target”…“ Risks to the inflation outlook are two-sided”

Equity Roll Pace: March is still front Month but not by much, all the volumes in Futures are all spread related, June could become front as early as Tomorrow.

• ESA: 61%.
• NQA; 51%.
• DOW: 66%.
• VGA: 37% (as of Yesterday for the EU).
• DAX: 28%.
• FTSE: 44%.

BNP (19th Dec) 74/60ps, sold at 4.55 in 2k.