US-RUSSIA: Kremlin Spox-'Enormous Potential For US-Russia Mutual Cooperation'
Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov has said regarding US-Russia talks on a possible Ukraine settlement that he "won't talk about a precise timeframe for now". Peskov: "There are no clear outlines of any agreement yet, but there is political will to move towards an agreement. And I repeat once again, we highly rate the constructive and meaningful contacts that we have had [with the US]." Says "there is enormous potential for US-Russia mutual cooperation which can help stabilise the world."
- US Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff met with President Vladimir Putin on 11 April for five hours. Witkoff called the meeting "compelling" and said the key to a deal centres on “five territories", likely referring to the five Ukrainian oblasts occupied either fully or mostly by Russia and claimed as part of the Russian Federation (Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson).
- Speaking at the White House, US President Donald Trump appeared to blame Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for starting the war, saying "You don't start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles," adding "Millions of people dead because of three people, Let's say Putin number one, let's say [former President Joe] Biden who had no idea what the hell he was doing, number two, and Zelenskyy."
- While the US continues talks with Moscow, the EU is seeking to push forward with a new sanctions package on Russia, potentially risking further rancour between Washington, D.C., and Brussels.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
