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• On the commodity front, despite Tuesday’s pullback, a bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Recent fresh cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on the $2962.2, a 2.00 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. The first key support to watch is $2879.0, the 20-day EMA.
• In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The move lower has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and paves the way for an extension towards $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $74.06, Feb 3 high. Initial resistance is at $71.49, the 50-day EMA.

• European Indices remain underpinned, led by better earnings today, given some of the attention on Tech stocks this Week, tonight will see major earning from US NVIDIA, expected after Markets around 21.20GMT/16.20ET.
• We  Flagged at the start of 2025 that the Bank Index (SX7E) was the most interesting chart at the start of the Year.
• This is making another 14yr High, that's a 33.2% gain from the December low, or 29.6% this Year.
• Next upside resistance comes at 197.88, the February 2011 high, and the highest printed level since August 2010.

(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).

• Treasuries have pared yesterday’s further rally since House Republicans narrowly passed a budget blueprint, moving away from recent highs that had been boosted by a disappointing consumer survey from the Conference Board.
• It’s a quieter docket today ahead of backloaded week for US data, giving greater prominence to 7Y supply (after a solid 2Y Mon and a fourth consecutive stop in the 5Y on Tue) before Nvidia results after the close.
• Cash yields are 1-3bp higher on the day, led by 5s.
• The bear flattening sees 2s10s at 19.4bps (-0.8bp) for some of its lowest levels since the Dec 18 hawkish FOMC.
• TYM5 takes the front contract with the quarterly roll well advanced, and at 110-12+ (-05+) has pulled back off yesterday’s high of 110-21.
• The bull cycle is seen remaining in play from a technical angle, with resistance at that 110-21 before 110-31 (Fibo projection of Jan 13 – Feb 7 – Feb 12 price swing).
• Data: MBA mortgage data (0700ET), New home sales Jan (1000ET)
• Fedspeak: Barkin (0830ET), Bostic (1200ET) – see STIR bullet.
• Coupon issuance: $28B 2Y FRN Note auction (1130ET), US Tsy $44B 7Y Note auction - 91282CMR9 (1300ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W bill (1130ET)