ECB: Lagarde Presents US Tariff Impact Estimates; Otherwise Little New Guidance

• DUH5 ~5.5k at 106.705 (suggest payer).
• OEH5 ~2k at 117.13 (suggest receiver).

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance  
• RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg                                
• PRICE: $32.394 @ 08:02 GMT Feb 18   
• SUP 1: $31.606/100 - 20- and 50-day EMA values         
• SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27 
• SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 

A bull theme in Silver remains intact despite the pullback from last Friday’s high. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and sights are on $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 31.100, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this level would highlight a potential reversal.

The December/January labour market data was slightly mixed, with SONIA futures following EUR and USD counterparts lower at the open. 

• Private regular wages were a little softer than expected, with the HMRC PAYE RTI data continuing to point to a downward trend in pay growth. However, this was somewhat offset in terms of market reaction by a lower-than-expected unemployment rate and higher than expected employment growth, alongside broader pressure in the rates space.
• SONIA futures are -1.5 to -3.5 ticks through the blues, off session lows at typing.
• BOE-dated OIS price 54bps of easing through year-end, around 3bps more hawkish than yesterday’s close. The next full 25bp cut continues to be priced through the June gathering.
• BOE Governor Bailey speaks in a Fireside Chat on “Preserving and enhancing open financial markets” at 0930GMT, so is unlikely to focus on monetary policy topics.
• Regional focus turns to tomorrow’s January inflation report (MNI’s preview here)