STIR: Large June'25 SOFR Call Spread Buying, Midcurve Skew Play Block

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance  
• RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
• RES 1: 6105.25/6162.28 Intraday high / High Jan 24             
• PRICE: 6036.00 @ 14:58 GMT Jan 27 
• SUP 1: 5961.75/5948.00 Low Jan 16 / Intraday low        
• SUP 2: 5943.94 61.8% retracement of the Jan 13 - 24 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key support 

The S&P E-Minis contract initially started the week on a bearish note, extending the pullback from Friday’s high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). For now, the move down appears corrective, however, a clear breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.

No meaningful reaction to the U.S. housing market data 

• Cross-market cues dominate, with little of note on the news front over the last few hours.
• The recovery from session lows in equities continues to push core global FI markets away from session highs.
• Market participants are still assessing the risks posed to U.S. tech by Chinese startup DeepSeek.
• U.S. Tsys remain the outperformer amongst core global FI markets,
• EGB spreads to Bunds still wider on the day but narrow from session highs as equities recover.

• MNI: US DEC NEW HOME SALES +3.6% TO 0.698M SAAR
• US NOV NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 0.674M SAAR