LATAM FX: LATAM FX Price Signal Summary – USCLP Corrective Bear Cycle Extends
Feb-05 14:17
- A volatile session marked Monday’s activity in USDMXN. The trend structure remains bullish and the move above 20.9382, the Jan 17 high, marks a resumption of the uptrend. The move higher also highlights the possible end of a sideways trend that has been in place since early November 2024. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards 21.4007 and 21.5807, the 3.00 and 3.236 projections of the Sep 18 - Oct 1 - 4 ‘24 price swing. Key support has been defined at 20.1343, the Jan 24 low. A break of this level would highlight a potential reversal.
- The USDBRL medium-term bull cycle is intact, however, a corrective cycle remains in play and this signals scope for a continued retracement. The 50-day EMA has been breached and this has been followed by a break of 5.8675, the Dec 12 low. Sights are on 5.7231, the Nov 13 ‘24 low. On the upside, a reversal would refocus attention on 6.3165, the Dec 18 high and the bull trigger. Initial resistance is at 5.9528, the 50-day EMA.
- A medium-term uptrend in USDCLP remains in play and recent weakness is considered corrective. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average highlights potential for a deeper retracement and open 966.86, the Dec 6 low. Clearance of this level would open the 960.00 handle. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1020.18 and 1026.48, the 1.236 and 1.382 projection points of the Nov 7 - 12 - Dec 6 price swing. Initial resistance to watch is 990.92, the 20-day EMA.
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US-JAPAN: Ishiba Calls For US Steel Review, Warns Of Future Investment Concens
Jan-06 14:13
Japanese firm Nippon Steel filed a lawsuit challenging US President Joe Biden for exercising "unlawful political influence" over a proposed USD$14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel. The decision to block the acquisition, formalised by Biden on Friday, threatens to drive a wedge between the two countries - each other’s top foreign investors.
- Nikkei reports: “Nippon Steel asked the court to set aside Biden's order... and to instruct the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to conduct a new review of [the deal]”.
- Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told reporters today: "It is unfortunately true that there are concerns being raised within Japan's industrial world over future Japan-US investment… It's something we have to take seriously."
- Ishiba added: "...we will strongly call on the US government to take steps to dispel these concerns… They need to be able to explain clearly why there is a national security concern, or else further discussions on the matter will not work,"
- US President-elect Donald Trump said in a statement on Truth Social a short time ago: "Why would they want to sell U.S. Steel now when Tariffs will make it a much more profitable and valuable company?"
- The US Chamber of Commerce noted that Japanese investment supports nearly one million American jobs, warning the decision "could have a chilling effect on international investment in America.”
EGB SYNDICATION: New 30-Year SLOREP: Mandate
Jan-06 14:12
"The Republic of Slovenia, rated A3 (positive) / AA- (positive) / A (stable), has mandated Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, HSBC, J.P. Morgan and OTP Banka Slovenia to lead manage a new benchmark EUR transaction with a 30-year tenor."
- "The deal is expected to be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions" (all details per Bloomberg)
- We expected a Slovenia syndication this week and saw scope for a 30-year SLOREP to be launched some time this year.
US TSY OPTIONS: Large Mar'25 10Y Put Buy
Jan-06 14:12
- +100,000 TYH5 106 puts, 14 ref 108-18.5 - total volume just over 105,900
