US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Narrowly Mixed Ahead Midweek Inflation Data
Feb-11 19:32
- Stocks trade mixed late Tuesday, inside narrow ranges as markets await the release of key CPI and PPI inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Currently, the DJIA trades up 58.19 points (0.13%) at 44529.93, S&P E-Minis down 0.75 points (-0.01%) at 6088, Nasdaq down 57.7 points (-0.3%) at 19656.57.
- Consumer Discretionary and Health Care sectors underperformed in the second half, a mix of auto and travel related stocks weighed on the former: Marriott International -5.28%, Tesla -4.63%, Expedia -3.0% while Garmin Ltd declined 2.37%. Managed care and pharmaceuticals weighed on the Health Care sector in late trade: despite rising revenues Humana dropped 8.25% after missing earnings estimates, Molina Healthcare -3.92%, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals -3.10%.
- On the positive side, Materials and Energy sectors continued to outperform in the second half. Oil and gas shares continued to gain with ongoing support in crude (WTI +.92 at 73.27): Phillips66 +4.45%, ConocoPhillips +2.67% and Devon Energy +2.51%. Meanwhile chemical manufacturers buoyed the Materials sectors: DuPont de Nemours +8.55% after beating earnings estimates, as did Ecolab Inc +6.49% amid robust end user demand.
- Reminder, Tuesday afternoon earnings include: Upstart Holdings, Brighthouse Financial, Welltower, Confluent, DoorDash, Eversource Energy, Lyft, Zillow Group, Gilead Sciences and Edwards Lifesciences Corp.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence
Jan-12 19:20
- RES 4: 1.2672 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 2: 1.2533/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 1.2208 @ 19:13 GMT Jan 10
- SUP 1: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 2023
- SUP 2: 1.2138 Low Nov 2 ‘23
- SUP 3: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces the bear trend - the break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The move down also marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2187 next, the Nov 10 2023 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.
EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence
Jan-12 19:02
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- RES 1: 1.0358 High Jan 8
- PRICE: 1.0239 @ 18:56 GMT Jan 10
- SUP 1: 1.0215 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0151 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains have proved to be a correction. Friday’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0201 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high.
US TSYS: Strong Jobs & Unemployment Rate Dip Dashes Rate Cut Hopes
Jan-10 20:22
- Treasuries gapped lower after Friday morning's larger than expected December non-farm and private payroll gains while unemployment dipped slightly.
- The 256k in December leaves a strong recent trend, with 255k in Sep, an average of 128k for those two months (initially 132k) before surprisingly reaccelerating again. Unemployment rate: 4.086% in Dec after very small downward revisions in the prior two months, with 4.23% in Nov (initially 4.246%) and 4.14% in Oct (initially 4.15%).
- The Dec'24 10Y contract traded down to 107-12 low (-27) well through technical support of 107-19.5 (1.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing) next level: 107-04 (Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support). Curves bear flattened but finished off lows, 2s10s -3.937 at 38.383 vs. 36.572 low, 5s30s -9.612 at 37.484. 10Y yield taps 4.7860 - highest since May 2022.
- Futures retreated towards post data lows late in the session while projected rate cuts through mid-2025 have retreated since this morning's data, current vs. morning levels* as follows: Jan'25 at -0.7bp (-1.7bp), Mar'25 -6.3bp (-10.1bp), May'25 -10.5bp (-15.9bp), Jun'25 -18.2bp (-25.6bp), Jul'25 -20.2bp (25.5bp).
- Next week brings CPI and PPI inflation measures on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, the scheduled Fed speaker docket rather muted with the Fed Blackout next Friday.
