US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Near Lows, Energy & Financials Underperforming

• Treasuries are extending session lows even as underlying risk factors over trade policy remain. However, optimism appears to be rising as headlines reveal Pres Trump & Pres Trudeau will continue discussions over tariffs.
• June'25 10Y contract trades -13.5 lower at 110-26.5 -- nearing initial technical support at 110-23/110-00 (Low Feb 28 / High Feb 7).
• Curves steeper with short end still outperforming: 2s10s +4.926 at 29.884, 5s30s +2.477 at 51.532.
• Stocks are inching higher - session highs but off overnight levels, SPX eminis +39.5 at 5829.0.
• Bbg US$ index retreating: BBDXY -12.34 at 1272.24.
• VIX vol index is rolling over: VIX -.98 at 52.53 vs. 24.84 high.

• Both sides of the EURUSD trade continue to work in a bullish direction, with greenback weakness extending throughout Wednesday’s session and the latest German fiscal developments providing a significant boost to the Euro.
• EURUSD has risen 1.5% and sits at session highs as we approach the APAC crossover. Dips for the single currency over the past 24 hours have remained extremely shallow, threatening an even stronger rally as we approach both the ECB meeting and NFP later in the week.
• Euro strength remains broad based, with the EURCHF surge continuing to standout. Following the break of 0.9518, the cross has extended gains to 1.62% on Wednesday, rising above 0.9600 for the first time since July last year. Most recent headlines on a one-month delay for Canada on Autos has done little to move the needle, however, EURCAD continues to rise aggressively. EURCAD is up 1.4% on Wednesday and has risen to a fresh four-year high above 1.55. Resistance remains scant here, signalling scope for a more protracted move to the pandemic induced highs just shy of 1.60.
• Separately, EURGBP has also extended its short-term reversal, rising 0.9%. This cross will be worth monitoring as we approach strong downtrend resistance, intersecting around 0.8430.
• EURAUD appreciation is also gathering significant pace, and today’s 0.6% advance looks set to extend its winning streak to 9 consecutive sessions, and total gains of around 3.85%. The last time we had a longer winning streak was back in December 2012, where EURAUD advanced for 11 sessions in a row and rose 3.36%.
• Uk construction PMI crosses Thursday, before the ECB decision/press conference and US jobless claims data.

• RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 2024    
• RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7 2024
• RES 2: 1.0804 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.0777 High Mar 5
• PRICE: 1.0774 @ 16:04 GMT Mar 5 
• SUP 1: 1.0602/1.0529 Intraday low / High Feb 26   
• SUP 2: 1.0447 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level      
• SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28    
• SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12 

A bullish impulsive wave in EURUSD has resulted in strong gains this week. This has resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high, marking a continuation of the reversal that started Feb 3. Note that 1.0677, 50.0% of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg, has been cleared. Sights are on 1.0804, the 61.8% retracement. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0447, the 50-day EMA.