US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Stock Bounce Tested By Headline Risk

Apr-22 18:52
  • Stocks look to finish higher Tuesday, off highs as headline risk continue to hamper sentiment. Stocks surged back to late Friday levels briefly after headlines that Tsy Sec Bessent (speaking at a JP Morgan event in DC - closed to public and media) sees the China tariff standoff as unsustainable and expects a de-escalation to occur.
  • Sentiment cooled yet again after Tsy Sec Bessent China headlines clarified: trade negotiations will be a slog, that negotiations haven’t started but that a deal is possible, according to people who attended his session.
  • Currently, the DJIA trades up  978.46 points (2.56%) at 39149.95 (vs. Monday's low of 37830.66), S&P E-Minis up 127 points (2.45%) at 5312 (Monday low of 5127.25), Nasdaq up 421.2 points (2.7%) at 16292.42 (Monday low of 15685.33).
  • Consumer Discretionary and Financial sector shares led gainers in late trade, PulteGroup +8.14%, Caesars Entertainment +6.00%, Royal Caribbean Cruises +5.13%, Tesla +4.72% and CarMax +4.38% led gainers in the Discretionary sector.
  • Financials were buoyed by Invesco +8.75%, Global Payments +5.14%, KKR & Co I+4.79%, W R Berkley +4.72% and Discover Financial Services +4.38%.
  • On the flipside, defense stocks trade broadly weaker with Northrop Grumman-14.55%, RTX -9.85% while Huntington Ingalls Industries dipped -0.85%.
  • Earnings after the close: Capital One Financial, Baker Hughes, Tesla, Manhattan Associates, EQT Corp, Steel Dynamics Inc, Intuitive Surgical Inc, Enphase Energy Inc and Range Resources Co.

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CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON

Mar-23 11:22
  • CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
  • CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION

US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows

Mar-21 21:00

Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.

  • That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
  • This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
  • We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
  • Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
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USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish

Mar-21 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
  • RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance 
  • RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg 
  • RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger  
  • PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
  • SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support   
  • SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
  • SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
  • SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle

USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.