US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Positioning Ahead Wednesday CPI

• RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
• RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing  
• RES 1: 158.87 High Jan 10  
• PRICE: 157.90 @ 19:34 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 156.60 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 154.44 Low Dec 19  
• SUP 3: 154.47 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17  

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. This week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces the bullish condition. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for a move towards 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 156.60, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger   
• RES 2: 0.8424 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8407 High Jan 9 
• PRICE: 0.8386 @ 19:28 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 0.8315/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8 
• SUP 2: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
• SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support

EURGBP traded sharply higher last week. The cross has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8311, and cleared the December highs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Note too that 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has also been cleared. This opens 0.8424, a Fibonacci retracement. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8315.

• RES 4: 1.2672 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30     
• RES 2: 1.2533/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7 
• RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9 
• PRICE: 1.2208 @ 19:13 GMT Jan 10
• SUP 1: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 2023
• SUP 2: 1.2138 Low Nov 2 ‘23 
• SUP 3: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing  
• SUP 4:  1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support    

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces the bear trend - the break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The move down also marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2187 next, the Nov 10 2023 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.