US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Projected Rate Cuts Decline

• RES 4: 1.2672 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30     
• RES 2: 1.2550/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7 
• RES 1: 1.2476 Low Dec 20 
• PRICE: 1.2356 @ 19:47 GMT Jan 8
• SUP 1: 1.2321/2300 Low Jan 7 / Low Apr 22 ‘24 and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.2226 0.618 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing 
• SUP 3: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 2023  
• SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and Wednesday’s sharp sell-off reinforces the bear trend. The move down has also confirmed a resumption of the bear leg and an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.2300 next, a break of this level would open 1.2226, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm trend resistance has been defined at 1.2576, the Jan 7 high.

• Crude has extended its losses today after EIA crude stock changes came as expected and product inventories saw large builds.
• WTI Feb 25 is down by 1.3% at $73.3/bbl.
• The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish, despite today’s correction, with sights on key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA, at $71.32.
• Spot gold has edged up by 0.3% to $2,657/oz, albeit it is off the session highs of $2,670, which marked the highest level for the yellow metal since Dec 13.
• A bear threat in gold remains present despite the latest recovery. However, a strong climb would signal scope for a move towards resistance at $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high.
• Meanwhile, copper has rallied by a further 1.7% to $427/lb, taking the red metal to its highest level since Dec 12.
• The move comes as Codelco announced a $1.5bn USD-bond issuance to help fund record investments. It will offer two benchmark-size tranches of about $750mn each, one maturing in 10 years and the other in 30 years, according to people familiar with the matter.
• A bearish trend condition in copper futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective.
• However, price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at $420.33, exposing key short-term resistance at $433.50, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal. 

• RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7 
• RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 2: 1.0530 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30 
• PRICE: 1.0312 @ 19:45 GMT Jan 8
• SUP 1: 1.0226 Low Jan 2
• SUP 2: 1.0209 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.0160 2.0% 10-dma envelope  

The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent gains appear corrective. The Jan 2 sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions and note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The 20-day EMA, at 1.0405, has been pierced. The next resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.0226, the Jan 2 low.