SWEDEN: Lending Growth Continues To Recover, Autos Exports Fall In Q4
Swedish lending growth continued its gradual recovery in January, with household loan growth at 1.8% Y/Y (vs 1.6% prior) and non-financial corporate (i.e. business) growth at -0.5% Y/Y (vs -0.8% prior). Riksbank rate cuts are continuing to feed through into the real economy, which is contributing to a more tentative approach to monetary policy going forward.
- This was the highest annual household growth rate since April 2023, and the highest business growth rate since December 2023.
- Housing loans account for 83% of total household lending. The average floating mortgage rate (up to 3 months, accounting for ~70% of total housing loans) eased to 3.3% (vs 3.5% prior) in January, while the average rate on 1-5-year fixed rate mortgages was steady at 2.9%.
January trade data was also released this morning, posting a merchandise trade surplus of SEK15.1bln (vs SEK5.4bln prior). On a 12-month rolling basis, the goods trade surplus rose to SEK74.2bln (vs SEK71.8bln prior).
- In Q4 overall, the volume of exports fell 1% Y/Y while import volumes were unchanged. Exports of engineering products (volume) fell 5% Y/Y, driven by road vehicles (-14% Y/Y).
- US President Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on EU auto imports from April 2, though a formal announcement has not yet been made. Sweden would be affected by these tariffs, which poses a risk to recent SEK strength. See here for more.
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MNI: FRANCE JAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT 92
- MNI: FRANCE JAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT 92
STIR: Q4 Bank Lending Survey Headlines Today's Calendar
Euribor futures are little changed through the blues, with US President Trump’s latest tariff jawboning having only a limited reaction overnight. ERZ5 remains below Friday’s pre-January flash PMI levels.
- ECB-dated OIS price 92bps of easing through year-end (vs 88bps at Friday's close), following yesterday’s DeepSeek-induced dovish repricing.
- Easing remains front-loaded, with 74bps of cuts priced through June.
- MNI’s full ECB preview will be released later this morning.
- The ECB’s Q4 Bank Lending Survey headlines today’s regional data calendar at 0900GMT/1000CET. Alongside Wednesday’s money and credit data, this will help inform the ECB’s assessment of how restrictive monetary policy is, following the 100bps of cuts delivered in 2024.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.6 |
| Mar-25 | 2.456 | -46.5 |
| Apr-25 | 2.327 | -59.4 |
| Jun-25 | 2.177 | -74.4 |
| Jul-25 | 2.127 | -79.4 |
| Sep-25 | 2.055 | -86.7 |
| Oct-25 | 2.036 | -88.5 |
| Dec-25 | 2.003 | -91.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
USD: A volatile FX session on Tariffs talks
- A more volatile session for FX Overnight on the back of Universal Tariff talks from President Trump and his Treasury secretary Bessent.
- The Dollar is in the green across the majors, the Yen is the worst performer in G10, as Yield ticked up, but more a function of the broader Dollar bid.
- Incredibly the USDJPY fell a whopping 217 pips Yesterday, triggered yesterday on the EU Equity Cash open as the Tech sector plummeted, this move has now been fully reversed, as it was trading circa 155.89 Yesterday Morning, and has printed a 155.95 high so far today.
- The Second worst performer in G10 is the Aussie, and support will move back up to the 0.6200 figure in AUDUSD, again more a function of the Dollar.
- Looking ahead most Market Participants will be focussing on the Australian CPI due Tomorrow.
