EUROZONE DATA: Lending To NFCs and Households Accelerates In December
Eurozone lending to households and firms accelerated in December, in a sign that ECB policy rate cuts are slowly being fed through to the real economy. More data will be required for the ECB to judge its policy settings as neutral (rather than restrictive) though, particularly after the Q4 Bank Lending Survey signalled a tightening in firm lending standards and soft firm loan demand expectations for the next 3 months.
- Adjusted for sales and securitisations, lending to firms grew 1.5% Y/Y (vs 1.0% prior), the strongest annual rate since July 2023. Accelerations were seen in Germany, France and Italy, but fell slightly in Spain.
- Household lending ticked up to 1.1% Y/Y (vs 0.9% prior), with all four major Eurozone countries contributing. A pickup in household consumption is a key tenet of the ECB’s projection for economic growth to recover in 2025.
- As a percentage of GDP, the Eurozone credit impulse continues to recover. Looking at the slow moving 12m/12m measure, new lending provided a 0.7% GDP boost in December (vs 0.5% in November). The impulse on a shorter term 3m/3m year ago measure was larger at 1.4% GDP (vs 0.8% prior).
- 3m/3m year ago credit impulse accelerations were seen in Germany, France and Italy.
- Overall M3 money growth was a little softer than expected at 3.5% Y/Y (vs 3.9% cons, 3.8% prior).
- Focus will be on President Lagarde’s commentary around this data and the Q4 BLS at tomorrow’s press conference.
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CANADA: Ministers Leave Florida w/Out Tariff Assurances From Trump's Team
Canadian Finance Minister, Dominic LeBlanc, and Foreign Affairs Minister, Melanie Joly, met on Saturday with two key members of US President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming cabinet to discuss strategy to avoid a 25% tariff that Trump has threatened to impose unless Canada takes steps to secure the border.
- LeBlanc’s spokesperson described the Florida meeting with Trump's Commerce Secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, and Interior Secretary/‘Energy Czar’ nominee, Doug Burgum, as “positive” and “productive”, noting the ministers “reiterated the shared commitment to strengthen border security" and "combat the harm caused by fentanyl." The spokesperson added that Lutnick and Burgum "agreed to relay information to President Trump.”
- Bloomberg reports: “It’s the second high-level Canadian mission to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in the past month, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met the incoming leader at the end of November,” noting that "Trudeau’s response to Trump’s tariff threat has been complicated by chaos in his government" including the resignation of finance minister Chrystia Freeland, who suggested in her resignation letter that Trudeau wasn't taking the tariff threat seriously.
- The New York Times notes the Canadians outlined a USD$900 million package of border security measures but “returned home without any assurances,” from Trump’s team.
- The Times adds: “…Trump has suggested that his tariff plan may have less to do with border security than with his desire to eliminate the $50 billion trade deficit with Canada. Oil and gas exports from Canada account for most of that trade imbalance. Without them, the U.S. generally has a trade surplus with Canada.”
COMMODITIES: Gold Slippage Undermines Bullish Theme
Gold traded sharply lower on Dec 18. That move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- WTI Crude down $0.29 or -0.41% at $70.28
- Natural Gas up $0.32 or +9.31% at $3.706
- Gold spot down $6.44 or -0.25% at $2613.09
- Copper down $0.95 or -0.23% at $411.5
- Silver down $0.01 or -0.05% at $29.342
- Platinum down $3.07 or -0.33% at $921.83
EQUITIES: Bearish Equity Threat Remains Present
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and Friday’s move lower highlights the end of the recent Dec 20 - 26 corrective bounce. An extension lower would expose 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective phase. Despite the latest bounce, a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Key short-term support has been defined at 4829.00.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 386.62 pts or -0.96% at 39894.54 and the TOPIX ended 16.76 pts lower or -0.6% at 2784.92.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 7.184 pts or +0.21% at 3407.326 and the HANG SENG ended 49.04 pts lower or -0.24% at 20041.42.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 53.28 pts or -0.27% at 19929.94, FTSE 100 lower by 37.9 pts or -0.47% at 8111.62, CAC 40 down 17.37 pts or -0.24% at 7337.98 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 13.31 pts or -0.27% at 4885.34.
- Dow Jones mini down 100 pts or -0.23% at 43239, S&P 500 mini down 15 pts or -0.25% at 6012, NASDAQ mini down 59.5 pts or -0.27% at 21639.75.
