STIR: Less-Dovish Waller And Daly Set Tone For Less Implied 2025 Easing

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8 
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 162.14/89 50-day EMA / High Jan 15 
• PRICE: 160.46 @ 20:04 GMT Jan 17 
• SUP 1: 159.73 Low Jan 17     
• SUP 2: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 158.24 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle

EURJPY traded lower last Thursday marking an extension of the current bear cycle. The cross has pierced support at 160.04, the Jan 13 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. The next price point to watch is 159.51, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a move above 162.89, the Jan 15 high, would reinstate the recent bullish theme.

• RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
• RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing  
• RES 1: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 156.18 @ 19:31 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 154.92 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 154.44 Low Dec 19 
• SUP 3: 153.99 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low 
• SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17  

The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s move lower appears corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 154.90, the 50-day EMA. A return higher and a breach of 158.87, the Jan 10 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 159.45, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. 

• RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg 
• RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24  
• RES 2: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8463 High Jan 15  
• PRICE: 0.8443 @ 19:24 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 0.8385 Low Jan 14   
• SUP 2: 0.8332/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
• SUP 3: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
• SUP 4: 0.8223 Low Dec 19

EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for stronger short-term gains. 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has been cleared. Note too that 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8332.