STIR: Light Hawkish Reaction To US Reciprocal Tariff Announcements
Euribor futures are -1.0 to -3.0 ticks through the blues, as markets assess yesterday’s US Reciprocal tariff announcement. President Trump ordered his staff to research and propose country-by-country levies, with the result of the studies expected to be completed by April 1. The EU is expected to be targeted by this policy, with Trump’s team launching complaints against the EU’s VAT policy. The delay between announcement and implementation reduces some immediate growth risks and adds scope for negotiation (likely driving the light hawkish reaction), but uncertainty remains high.
- ECB-dated OIS price 80bps of easing through year-end, ~1.5bps more hawkish than yesterday’s close and down from ~90bps earlier this week.
- The second estimate of Eurozone Q4 GDP headlines today’s regional calendar and is expected to be unchanged at 0.0% Q/Q (below the ECB’s latest projection of 0.2%).
- This release will include an initial estimate of quarterly employment growth and - more importantly - real productivity per employee. The ECB projects employment growth at 0.1% Q/Q and productivity at 0.8% Y/Y.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.422 | -24.5 |
| Apr-25 | 2.252 | -41.5 |
| Jun-25 | 2.082 | -58.5 |
| Jul-25 | 2.016 | -65.1 |
| Sep-25 | 1.931 | -73.6 |
| Oct-25 | 1.909 | -75.8 |
| Dec-25 | 1.864 | -80.3 |
| Feb-26 | 1.862 | -80.5 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
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MNI: SPAIN DEC HICP 0.4% M/M, 2.8% Y/Y
- MNI: SPAIN DEC HICP 0.4% M/M, 2.8% Y/Y
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, these DO NOT take into account the UK CPI, and given that Sonia is up 11.5 ticks in the red, Desks will look for further upside risks.
- Range would have been 89.30/89.47.
SILVER TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.661 - High Jan 10
- PRICE: $29.992 @ 07:56 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
