Euribor futures are -1.0 to -3.0 ticks through the blues, as markets assess yesterday’s US Reciprocal tariff announcement. President Trump ordered his staff to research and propose country-by-country levies, with the result of the studies expected to be completed by April 1. The EU is expected to be targeted by this policy, with Trump’s team launching complaints against the EU’s VAT policy. The delay between announcement and implementation reduces some immediate growth risks and adds scope for negotiation (likely driving the light hawkish reaction), but uncertainty remains high.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 2.422 | -24.5 |
Apr-25 | 2.252 | -41.5 |
Jun-25 | 2.082 | -58.5 |
Jul-25 | 2.016 | -65.1 |
Sep-25 | 1.931 | -73.6 |
Oct-25 | 1.909 | -75.8 |
Dec-25 | 1.864 | -80.3 |
Feb-26 | 1.862 | -80.5 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |
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Gilt calls, these DO NOT take into account the UK CPI, and given that Sonia is up 11.5 ticks in the red, Desks will look for further upside risks.
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.